Mr. 500 Foot Bombs

A quick look through various posts on Cleveland sports blogs and websites seem to identify one thing. A collective look of puzzlement. People are moaning and groaning that Matt Laporta will now have to shift around the diamond to ensure Branyan will get the at bats he may have been promised. Others are nervous that this is a case of Shapiro signing a veteran free agent to "give more time" for Michael Brantley's development in AAA (reeking of signing Juan Gonzalez to play over Grady Sizemore, before Gonzalez inexplicably left his hamstring in the batter's box while running to first base, forcing Shapiro's and Wedge's interlocked hands). Some don't understand where the $2 mil to sign this guy is coming from (and rightly so, why spend money on a guy who will fortify a lineup that isn't supposed to compete anyways). However, I have a different take on this investment...

I don't propose to be an expert on player movement. I have a pretty good idea of the transaction wire, based on the fact I love baseball and have an above average memory. I don't study the boards, look very deep into statistics, or surf a million websites. But I do work in baseball, and being around it all the time helps one think about it all the time. Around the baseball trading deadline last season, I was coaching a high school travel team in a tournament in Missouri. One of our pitchers was getting recruited by Vanderbilt, and their assistant coach, Josh Holliday was their scouting. Josh's brother Matt had just been traded to the Cardinals from the A's. This got me thinking. Why would the A's, a traditional small market/low budget team decide to pick up a player like Holliday, and trade him mid year. Then I started thinking....

How have the A's built and maintained success? By drafting smart and trading their groomed stars for other team's prospects of course. In a game where, like it or not, statistics are so dominant, the players that put up the best statistics are going to win out time and time again. The reason why professional poker players play millions of hands is to make sure they play enough hands that the 63% chance they will win a hand, happens 63% of the time (the singular "bad beat" hands you see on television are the anomaly, whereas, if that hand played out enough times would produce the expected percentage results - quick little stats lesson for ya). But success breeds copy-cats, and Billy Beane's secrets to success were out. Couple that with the fact that large market teams were using those secrets, Beane went back to the drawing board.

Now this is only my opinion, and I could be way off but... I think Beane said, "well, I've got no star players of my own to trade anymore... so why don't I go and get someone else's star player to trade." He gave up one of his biggest name's in Street, and a couple of prospects whose ceilings were in the process of being lowered, for one of the best pure hitters in the game. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2008/267167.html Holliday came, Holliday didn't hit too well, and Holliday left. Even if he put up monster numbers, I am fairly certain he would still be shipped out of town. And their inlies the genius. He traded his prospects that weren't panning out, for other prospects who have tremendous upside... "Not only did the A's receive nearly four full months of service from Holliday, whom they acquired from the Rockies last November, but in trading him to St. Louis (along with $1.5 million), they received arguably a greater return than what they paid the Rockies last year. Landing Wallace alone could provide more value to Oakland than the combination of Huston Street, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith ever will to the Rockies." http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2009/268597.html .This year he signed Ben Sheets. I am fairly certain that, once again, he plans on shipping him out at the deadline for more young prospects.

This is where Shapiro/Antonetti come in. Even if Branyan hits 35 bombs, drives in 120 rbi, and cuts his strike out numbers in half, what value does he really bring to this club? A $5mil mutual option for next year?? Does that sound like something an owner would pickup who treats money as if it will never be printed again? Or, does that sound like a cheap price tag for a contending big market team to pick up for a guy who could potentially be a middle of the order guy?

I hope you see where I am going with this. Do not get all bent out of shape over this signing. Yet. Laporta needs some time to come back after the surgeries. He needs some time to learn how to play first base competently. He can do all of this while Branyan hopefully mashes, and brings in well more than $2mil worth of prospects at the trade deadline. Read the rest of this article

Keep Cliff Lee!

Poll voters overwhelmingly voted that they couldn't bear to lose Cliff Lee because he is one of the only Indians worth watching. I am stunned. Do any of you actually think to yourself, "Indians game. Is Cliff Lee pitching? If so, I'll actually make a point to watch this one tonight."

He may be one of the only Indians worth watching, but that doesn't mean he actually gets people to watch the games. If he doesn't do that, we need to trade him while his value is so high.

Please comment loyal readers. Explain yourselves.

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How to Resuscitate the Indians in 5 Easy Steps

It's easy to forget about the Indians. They're a lifeless last-place team with absolutely no personality. They play in a football town that also just so happens to be the main stage for the greatest basketball player on earth and a team that is potentially on the verge of a title. Their home is a somewhat dated looking ballpark that is, much like it's sole tenant, a decade past its prime. They play in front of crowds that long for the big bats and bigger personalities of the 90's. As Mike Tyson might say, the Indians are quietly fading into Bolivian.

For the most part, the death of the Indians has been little more than a footnote on this site. With enough stress and disappointment in our lives, it's just easier to talk about the Cavs than it is to dwell on the Tribe's downward spiral. Although we would all probably acknowledge that something has been missing from this summer, most of us are generally content to keep the Indians out of sight and out of mind. While I find it difficult to find compelling reasons even to get myself to care about this organization, before we write them off altogether, let me just remind you of something that drifted into my conscience while reading a piece (more on the content later) about the Indians on ESPN today: When the Indians are winning, they're probably the most fun of any of our three teams to root for. I know that this town would probably implode if the Browns ever reached a Superbowl, but just consider the following about the Indians: 1) They play 162 games a year, 2) the bulk of their season is played in the summer and fall when people in Northeast Ohio actually venture out and associate with others, 3) you can watch them from a good seat for $15 bucks, and 4) they play the sport that has the most thrilling postseason (baseball is my 3rd favorite sport to watch but NOTHING, and I mean nothing, comes close to October baseball. It's as good as it gets).

Bottom line: We should care about the Indians. Our parents and grandparents care about them because they remember the champions of the 40's and 50's. We care about them because they were the central part of Cleveland's renaissance in the 90's. As much as we try to forget about it, this team really matters to this town, or at least it used to. Go ask the Downtown businesses which team is most important to Cleveland's metropolitan revitalization. It's not even close. 40,000 fans 81 times a year dwarfs the economic impact that any other team or activity can have on this city. The point to be made here is that the Indians have turned into a crappy organization and this town can't afford to have them stay that way. So, without further ado, I bring you 5 easy steps to fix the Indians.

1. Fire Eric Wedge:

I think I speak for just about every Indians fan when I say that it will be a slap in the face to all of us if Wedge survives this season. I don't even need to go through every reason. In a nutshell, he doesn't develop players and he doesn't give the fans one god damn reason to care about the team. His stoic bullshit has run its course with all of us. At this point, every interview is just a disgusting, patronizing sham. If you're going to act like he does, you'd better make sure you're a winner. Wedge may have taken a team with two aces and two unhittable relievers to the brink in 2007, but everything that happened prior to that second-half run and everything that has happened since game 4 of that ALCS have proven that Wedge is not a winner. Get rid of him.

2. Trade all or some of the following: Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Rafael Betancourt, Carl Pavano, Kerry Wood, Ryan Garko, and Jhonny Peralta:

Lets take these one at a time:

Cliff Lee: His value is at an all time high. If the Indians traded him now with a full year and a half left on his reasonable contract, they could duplicate the haul they received for Sabbathia. Contenders are always willing to trade prospects for aces. What makes Lee unique is that the Indians could even have small market teams offering multiple top prospects if he is moved now because those teams be willing to give up more for what is beyond the traditional 3-month trade-deadline rental. Lee has inexplicably become one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, by the time the Indians are ready to contend again, he will have almost definitely moved on anyway. Trade him now. Let the deals for him and CC become the cornerstones of the next Indians contender.

Victor Martinez: This is by far the toughest call to make because Victor is one of the last guys here that actually makes the fans care. Trade him and you might have a full-fledged fan mutiny on your hands. Here's the thing though: Trading him just makes too much baseball sense to ignore for cosmetic reasons. He's over 30. His contract will be up before the Indians can contend again. Teams would pay a ransom for a backstop with his bat. Finally, and most importantly, the Indians top prospect plays his position (Santana). I love Victor Martinez. He plays hard, he does it with personality and flair, and he has been nothing but good to the fans in this town. That said, we'd be doing him a favor by moving him to a contender. It's in everyone's best interests to trade him soon.

Rafael Betancourt: Teams are always willing to overpay for relievers at the deadline, even right-handers. Betancourt is too old (34) to contribute to the next Indians contender. Moving him is an easy call.

Carl Pavano: It's a miracle that he actually has value right now. The Indians should take advantage of it.

Kerry Wood: There obviously aren't many games to save. I'm not sure what we accomplish by paying him another $15 million over the life of his deal. Even given his rocky start, teams needing a setup man or closer will pay for his services at the deadline.

Ryan Garko: Slow, no pop, no position. This is exactly the type of player that has no future here. See what you can get for him and move on.

Jhonny Peralta: See Garko, Ryan. This isn't the type of guy you build a team around. Asdrubal is our SS of the present and future. Peralta is a disgusting player, and I never want to see him in an Indians uniform again.

If a player isn't on this list, it's either because he's both young and good (Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, etc.), promising enough to potentially be a part of our future (Reyes, Carmona, Laffey, Lewis, etc.), worthless in trade (Francisco, Barfield, etc.), or just laughably overpaid to the point where it's not even worth trying to move him (Hafner). If a player isn't in one of these categories, he needs to be moved.

Now, I know what you're thinking: If you traded all of the guys on my list, the Indians would be a 55 win team that nobody would watch. Here's my question to you: Is that any worse than a 70-win team that nobody will watch? I mean honestly, what's the difference? The only difference I can think of is that our current 70-win team lacks the depth of top-level prospects to actually improve in the coming years. My hypothetical 55-win team is stocked with a handful of elite prospects and even more high-ceiling developmental players that could evolve into solid major-leaguers. As a fan, which team would you rather root for?

Here's what this really boils down to: When you're a small to mid-market team like the Indians, if you're going to build a perennial contender like we saw in the 90's, you either have to get extremely lucky through the draft and player development (obviously not the Indians forte), or you have to make enough timely moves to create a bumper crop of top prospects that can grow into a contender before they all reach free-agency. The Indians need to infuse their system with a glut of young talent in the mold of Santana, Brantley, and LaPorta. Holding on to veterans just for appeasement and appearances isn't going to help anyone. Still, I recognize that a massive fire sale is going to create even more resentment from the fans. Thus, I give you step 3 . . .

3. Hire Omar Vizquel or Mike Hargrove as Manager:

I know what you're thinking: I'm typing with my heart and not my head. Allow me to make my case: The Indians have two gigantic problems right now: 1) They stink and have no serious prospects for improvement; and 2) perhaps more importantly, they have NO connection with the fans anymore. There is not a single personality in that dugout, aside from maybe Martinez, who gives the fans a reason to care. They all carry on like robots. Even Sizemore, who I love as a player (and who under the right regime might actually become the top 5 player that he should be), is more of a bassist than a frontman. There is a huge disconnect between the Indians and their fans. That problem is only going to be exacerbated by the selloff that I'm calling for in step 2. There are only two men on Earth who harbor the potential to make the fans care again if this franchise goes into a full-blown rebuilding mode: Omar Vizquel and Mike Hargrove.

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Vizquel is the better choice of the two here. The Indians would sell more tickets with a 50-win team managed by Vizquel than by continuing with their current operation headed by Mr. Personality. Vizquel is one of the most beloved athletes in the history of Cleveland sports, which is saying a lot for a career .273 hitter. What's more, I think he will eventually be a very good manager. He obviously has a high baseball IQ, he was well-liked as a teammate, his media skills are fantastic, and most of all, he understands how to connect with the fans. Some might argue that it's foolish to hire a guy without any coaching experience, let alone managerial experience, but honestly, how much of a risk are we really talking about here? First, you'd be handing him the keys to an operation with no chance of contending regardless of the manager. Second, he can't be any worse at developing players than our current manager. Third, we're talking about a baseball manager here. They're important but they're not football coaches or even coordinators for that matter. They make a difference but it's not as if the job couldn't be done by a novice, especially one who has been playing professionally for 20 years.

Vizquel + young talent is a package you could sell in this town. They'd still be bad and they still wouldn't be breaking any box office records, but I assure you, this town would embrace them. People would actually care about the Indians again. Vizquel could walk out of the dugout and simply wave his cap, Jimmy Dougan style, before every game, and it would still give fans more of a thrill than the outfit currently masquerading as the Indians. If you don't believe me then you didn't see the reception Vizquel got when he came back to Cleveland as a Giant. The word beloved doesn't do justice to the relationship between Vizquel and the fans here. He's the right guy to make this team matter again.

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Would he take the job? It's hard to say. He's still under contract with the Rangers and probably wants to play as long as he has a job, but you could concieve of a scenario in which Wedge is fired, an interim manager is named, and then Vizquel is contacted about taking the job next year. The guy loves the Indians, loves the game, and probably wouldn't mind keeping a 7-figure salary for the foreseeable future. Who knows if he wants to manage, but there is at least some reason to believe that the Indians would have a shot.

If Omar won't take the job, the Indians would have no better option than Hargrove. I'm the first to admit that teams rarely go forward by looking backwards, but given the special circumstances surrounding the Indians right now (namely, that the fans hate the organization), a little nostalgia might go a long way. I saw a piece on ESPN yesterday about Hargrove (the one I referenced earlier) and I have to admit, it made me sad. I was never really a huge Hargove fan but I must concede that I miss the guy. Yes, 99% of those feelings are probably more about what Hargrove represents than what he actually brought to the table, but perception is every bit as important as reality. If the current Indians regime can make itself look a little bit more like the one that preceeded it, maybe the fans would be willing to give them a shot. You could sell Hargrove + a youth movement as the second coming of the 90's Indians. Plus, while Hargrove may not have been the best game manager in the league, he certainly oversaw the development of a lot of great young players, roids or no roids. He's currently managing a Summer League team in Kansas called the BJs (I swear I'm not making that up) and desperately wants back into the Majors. If called, he'd be on a plane before Dolan hung up the phone.

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4. Sell Reality:

Cleveland fans are not as stupid as the current Indians regime might wish to believe. They can feed us heaping bowls of bullshit, and lord knows they try, about staying the course and sticking with what you've got, but we all know the truth: The Indians aren't going anywhere. They have a couple of stars, a handful of above-average players, a few talented prospects, and a bunch of crap. Yet, in spite of this painfully obvious reality, we can't ever seem to get an honest assessment from Wedge, Shapiro, or Dolan, about what's really happening to this team. When my plan takes full effect, and the Indians as we know them have been imploded and the team is led by Vizquel or Hargrove, ownership and the front office need to come clean. Tell the fans the truth: "Look, we weren't going anywhere so we traded all of our veterans and and decided to go into full-blown rebuilding mode. But, at the same time, we whacked the manager you all hated and replaced him with an icon that all of you love and who knows the game well enough to succeed. We want you to come along for the ride and grow with this team, because as you can see by all of our elite young talent, we're going to be special down the road." Give Cleveland fans some credit. It's not that we're afraid of losing . . . It's that we're afraid of never winning. Give us genuine hope and we'll buy into it, even if you tell us it's going to take a while.

5. Let the kids play:

If you're going to sell the youth movement, you've got to let the kids play. Aside from speeding along their development, this will also foster the type of player-fan connection that is so sorely lacking in the current state of affairs. Fans always have a greater connection to players that they watch grow up. That's part of the reason, along with the fact that they had all-stars at every position, that the mid-90's Indians meant so much to this town. So many of those guys made the leap as Indians. For my future team, the same thing needs to happen. No more Dave Delluccis, Carl Pavanos, or any other stopgap veterans brought in to make the team slightly less worse (and take away at-bats or innings from the prospects). It will be time to live, and more likely die, at least for a while, with the kids.

...

That's it. That's my plan. You may not like it, but I can assure you it's better than the road to nowhere we're currently traveling. How about it Tribe fans? What do you think?

Read the rest of this article

Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Tribe In Desperate Need of 'Relief'

I'm pissed off. I should be basking in the glow of the Cleveland Cavaliers as they march towards their inevitable championship destiny. I should be drinking my annual Browns' delusional punch, convincing myself the team has any semblance of finishing above .500. I should be admiring Terrelle Pyror's new tattoo.

Instead, evening after painful, predictable evening, I am forced to endure the pathetic excuse for a team, currently masquerading as the Cleveland Indians.

In the past, this site has been accused of taking a somewhat cynical and critical view towards our Cleveland sports franchises. However, I refuse to be further subjected to and to blindly cheer for a Cleveland Indians team which is both boring to watch and mind-numbingly frustrating to follow. A wildly inconsistent offense, coupled with a gasoline and matchbox carrying bullpen, and a team devoid of leadership, has lead me down the fandom path of anger, despair and that oh to familiar Cleveland feeling of apathy (really a disguised mixture of anger and despair).

For the past few seasons, the Indians have been the media's sexy preseason sleeper pick, the team which all the pundits love to purchase a season upon the bandwagon. What these pundits fail to perceive, is that Tribe as currently constructed, is an inherently flawed baseball team. A bandwagon with three broken wheels and no horses isn't going anywhere.

1. The Bullpen

The hands-down, biggest culprit for the Indians' failures thus far this season is the bullpen. Look, no one expected the bullpen to be this bad. In fact, coming into the season, the bullpen appeared one of the strengths of the roster. Picking up Joe Smith and Kerry Wood only seemed to cement a relief corps which finished last season strongly. Instead, the team has the league's worse bullpen - a group who seemingly cannot retire a batter between them.

How many of you out there, when watching Indians' games feel that any lead is safe? Not me. I don't care if the Tribe is up 7 runs in the 9th inning with two outs, as this point in the season I have absolutely zero confidence in any of our relievers.

The Indians relievers with the lowest ERAs currently are Tony Sipp (3.60 - who gave up 2 runs in a .1 inning of work in his last appearance) and Aaron Laffey (3.60). The fact that the Indians had to move their most consistent starter to stabilize the bullpen indicates just how bad things have gotten. Not to mention that the supposed reliable members of our pen, Wood, Jensen Lewis and the Raffies have been giving up runs at an alarming clip (like every single game). Jensen Lewis especially has been serving up home runs like a pedophile handing out candy to tricker-treaters.

Perhaps the bullpen's struggles can be attributed to the off-season dismissal of Luis Issac. Perhaps moving Laffey to the pen, demoting Raffy Perez, calling up Matt Herges to replace Vinnie Chulk, and the potential pick up of Luis Vizcaino will turn things around. All I know is that's hard to win ballgames when you can't protect leads. And, as a starting pitcher, it has to be demoralizing to leave with a sizable lead, only to see the pen crap away the game. I'd rather the Indians get blown out of a game, rather than see the team continually give games away in the latter innings.

2. The Tribe has No Personality/ No Leadership

A second problem I have with this team is that has absolutely zero personality. Watching the Indians play this season, it's clear that they are one of the most vanilla teams in baseball - the team identity falling somewhere between Ben Stein's portrayal as Ferris Bueller's teacher and a pet rock. Gone are those carefree yesteryear days of pies in the face, ala Trot Nixon. In their stead, we find a team without an identifiable captain or even a viable mouthpiece.

The problem seemingly starts at the top with Eric Wedge. I've always been on the fence with Wedge as a manager of this team, which in of itself is a characterization of the overall identity problem with the team. Wedge has always been so bland in spouting off trite baseball sound bites after games, that it's nearly impossible to form an opinion of his either positively or negatively because he's so robotic. His players seem to respect him, if only because he protects from the media and his usual refusal to say anything negative about them.

On the other hand, Wedge spends most games staring off into the distance, with a look of utter disinterest and disdain plastered across his face. It's only been recently, with the Tribe's season circling the drain, along with Wedge's future employment, that we've begun to see any life and fight emerge from him. In fact, one of my favorite moments so far this season was when Wedge finally showed some emotion arguing that swinging strike and that foul ball in the Red Sox game, getting himself tossed. The Indians were so moved by their manager's unusual display of emotion that they rallied themselves into another losing effort.

While I'm not a huge Ozzie Guillen fan, I can't help but think that an underachieving team like the Indians might be better served by having a fiery manager like Ozzie at its helm. I'm thinking along the lines of perhaps a Tony Pena - he has managing experience and he's even smacked one of relief pitchers in the head with a glove before.

But despite Wedge's unwavering demeanor for the most part, no player has stepped up into the leadership role on the field - gaps left by the departures of Casey Blake and C.C. Sabathia. Usually, a team's most talented players will find themselves in the leadership role, if only because their abilities on the field seemingly earn them the respect of their peers. On the Indians, two players who would appear to be in leadership type positions are Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. And honestly, neither of them strikes me as a vocal leader of this group.

Sizemore especially would seem to possess all the qualities necessary to be a dynamic clubhouse voice for the Tribe - -he plays the game hard, he seems to enjoy himself and his teammates seem to respect him. Unfortunately, he seems to have no interest in filling that role. It's typically unusual for a younger player to be the mouthpiece of a team. Having someone like Lebron James in our backyards (who is such an impressive team general) can blind us to the fact that it's typically the older veterans who set the tone for how a team approaches the game or responds from hardships. Grady just doesn't seem to have the type of personality who is going to rally teammates in the dugout or pat someone on the back after a hard game. Maybe as he matures, Grady will fall into to such a role, but presently it might not be fair to expect him to do so.

On the other hand, Martinez seems to have both the talent and the desire to be the leader of the Indians. As a catcher, Victor would seem to demand respect of the pitching staff and as the team's most polished hitter, it would be natural for him to set the tone in the lockerroom to the other hitters (hopefully preaching patience). I do think Martinez is probably the silent leader of this ballclub. I think Victor's personality appears that he's not so much an outspoken leader, as much as he leads by example.

The problem with Victor serving as the leader of this ball club is that he also currently the team's most tradable asset. As Biff discussed in one of his earlier posts, with the organizational glut of catching prospects coupled with Victor's inevitably move from behind the plate to first-base, if the Indians continue to tank, their apparent leader of the Tribe may be out of here by July.

Interestingly, Ryan Garko was recently asked on the radio who he thought was the emotional leader of the Tribe. His response - David Dellucci. Hmmm - the leader of the Tribe is someone who's been absent from the team for the majority of the season? Perhaps Wedge knew something about the makeup of the Indians when he essentially assured Dellucci a roster spot in Spring Training. If Dellucci truly is a team leader, maybe his value to the team is greater than most Indians' fans realize.

3. The Indians Offense Strikes Out Way Too Much

Finally, the Indians' offense, as constructed, essentially has to get lucky to succeed. As a team, the Tribe has marignal speed and and for the most part is forced to mainly play station-to-station baseball. We're not going to see the Indians manufacturing a load of runs. The problem with this philosphy, is that the Indians have to rely on clutch hitting to score runs. And the Indians strike out. A lot.

Take for example, Jhonny Peralta. In 101 ABs this season, he's struck out a whooping 32 times. Grady Sizemore has struck out 1 out of every 4 ABs. DeRosa and Choo - 1 out of every 5 times. Kelly Shoppach? 48 ABs and 20 Ks.

The point is - when a team, which doesn't have a lot of speed isn't even putting the ball into play 20% of the time, hits aren't getting strung together and runs aren't getting scored. Furthermore, it's hard to ever string together any kind of big inning or rally - it's inevitable someone's going to come along and strike out in a big moment. (And I know that the Indians' have had some huge innings this year, like against the Yankees).

With the Tribe's lack of plate discipline, the Tribe has a knack for letting opposing pitchers off the hook, prolonging their appearance in the game and avoiding getting to another team's bullpen. Our hitters make the other team's job easier. And my job as a fan much harder.

So - what we have is an organization with no leadership, a team with no plate discipline and a bullpen which can't get anyone out? How would I fix these problems? I think the roster moves (bringing up LaPorta and Valbuena) are a start - placing those underachievers on the roster on notice. I think it might be time to bring in a new coach - as I said above, perhaps someone with a little bit more fire in the likes of Tony Pena. I think it might be time to take the next relief pitcher who gives up a lead out back and shoot them. Same for the next player who strikes out with runners in scoring position. Other than that, I see but one solution. GO CAVS. Read the rest of this article

Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Tribe 'Snaps' Losing Streak

The Indians finally decided to show up for the 2009 season, winning their first game today 8-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays. Here are my brief thoughts on the game.

1. I was in attendance at the game today and it was the smallest turnout I can remember seeing since the Indians moved into the new stadium. Announced attendance was at 14,216, which according to ESPN is 32.7% capacity and it seemed much emptier than that. The upper deck was almost completely empty - at one point being populated by more birds than fans. I know it was a) Easter b) Cold c) the Tribe has been playing poorly and d) the Cavs were playing the Celtics in the Q (1 more game to clinch home court throughout the playoffs!) but it was disheartening to the see the stadium so empty so early in the season. If the Indians fall out of contention sooner rather than later, we may start see old Stadium-sized crowds returning. Given the choice between the Cavs and the Indians right now, I think most fans would choose to spend their limited resources on a winner.

2. Anthony Reyes was solid, but not spectacular today. However, in comparison to the recent starting pitching of the Indians, he was an All-Star. Reyes had some trouble locating his pitches (only 53 of his 96 pitches were for strikes) and walked three batters, but other than his last inning of work, kept the damage to a minimum.

3. Like Reyes, Blue Jays' starter David Purcey had all sorts of trouble finding the plate. I don't know if it was the cold temperature, but Purcey bounced at least ten balls and sailed two over the head of Rod Barajas. Somehow, despite this wildness and walking 6 batters, Purcey also managed to strikeout ten Indians. Fellow CMCR writer, Biff, who attended the game as well, pointed out that the Indians showed some awful plate discipline today - and helped Purcey out of a couple situations that could have been a lot worse.

4. Before the game, Biff and I were talking about the impact that speed can have on a team. Grady Sizemore showed that in the first inning, creating a run himself ala Kenny Lofton. Sizemore walked to lead off the game, stole second, went to third on a wild pitch by Purcey and scored when Barajas threw the ball into the outfield. Though Sizemore would have been dead at third with a good throw, because of his speed, Barajas was forced to rush his throw and the Indians were gifted a run without the aid of a hit in the inning. Shin-Soo Choo also stole a base in the game.

5. Mark DeRosa gave the Indians a 3-0 lead when he launched his first home run of the season into the left-field bleachers. I was glad to see DeRosa hit one out as I was worried his power numbers might be affected negatively leaving the wind-aided confines of Wrigley Field. DeRosa still looks a little uncomfortable at the plate, after a very solid Spring Training. It's possible he's pressing a bit, trying to make an immediate impact with his new team.

6. Trevor Crowe provided the highlight of the season thus far. With runners on second and third and two outs, the Blue Jays chose to pitch around Ryan Garko issuing the "unintentional-intentional" walk. Trevor Crowe came to the plate with the bases loaded, looking for his first major league hit, and promptly struck out. Crowe then snapped his bat over his knee in frustration - a throwback to Bo Jackson. Then, in a twist of baseball fate, Crowe came back two innings later in the same situation, two outs with the bases loaded. This time, Crowe ripped a double to right-center scoring two runs. It was good to see Crowe not let his first at-bat get into his head and come through with a key hit in a key situation. The more Crowe produces, the greater the chance we will not be seeing Dellucci on the field again.

7. Pronk Patrol: Travis Hafner looked awful in his first three at-bats. Two swinging strike outs and a caught looking for the hat trick. However, Pronk worked a walk in his fourth plate appearance and in the ninth inning, with the Indians clinging to a one-run lead, hit a no-doubter into the right-field stands, providing two very large insurance runs. If you told most fans before the season started that Pronk would be batting .300 with 3 HRs a week in, they'd be thrilled. I'm going to give Pronk the benefit of the doubt in saying that he looks like someone working to regain their comfort level at the plate. He's had some bad swings so far this season, but he's also had some very, very good ones, reminiscent of Pronk swings from the past. The swing Hafner had when he hit the double in the first game of the series against the Blue Jays was the best swing I've seen Hafner had in two years. He's now hit home runs in three straight games. I'm not a believer that he can keep this up for the course of the season yet, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

8. Jhonny Peralta draws the ire of a lof of Indians' fans for his defense, sometimes deservedly so. However, his offensive production often goes overlooked. It might surprise you to learn that Peralta lead the American League in home-runs from the shortstop position last year with 23. Today he went 3 for 5, raising his batting average on the season to .333. He had multiple hit games every game in the series. Peralta seems to approach the plate with a Manny Ramirez mentality - he seems to have no short-term memory of any previous poor at-bats. I think that he can be a steadying force in the lineup.

9. Finally, Kerry Wood was lights out today, striking out the side in the 9th inning on 13 pitches. Wood was hitting the high nineties on the rader gun and just attacked the Blue Jays hitters. Hard to think that at this time last season we were being subjected to Joe Borowski's 80 MPH meatballs. Wood also seemed to energize the crowd, receiving one of the largest cheers all day when he took the mound. Hopefully he will have a save situation to pitch in sometime in the near future.

Tribe begins its series at Kansas City (3-3) tomorrow at 8:10. Carmona (0-1 10.80 ERA) will be looking for his first win against Zach Greinke (1-0 0.00 ERA) Read the rest of this article

Indians Thoughts

A few thoughts on our now 0-5 baseball team:

1. I didn't expect the Indians to win more than about 85 games this year but they're definitely not this bad. My guess is that they'll settle down eventually and become a .500 team. What kills me about the idea of another atrocious April though is that the Indians are going to be completely out of it by the all-star break, even in a very mediocre division. That makes for an awfully long season. It's one thing to play a meaningless second half. It's quite another to be playing virtual exhibition games in early June.

2. Shapiro and Dolan have to be absolutely terrified by the scenario that might be unfolding for the organization right now. Combine a cold, wet April with a terrible start for the team, now add in a bad recession and the possibility of the Cavs making a very deep playoff run that could last all the way into late June. I mean really, if all of those things come to fruition, the team could be looking at an absolute financial armageddon. What's more, I don't even know if they could really even dump salary if they wanted to because most of the expensive pieces that they might consider moving are virtually untradeable (Hafner, Dellucci, Kobayashi). I mean sure, you could shop a guy like Jake Westbrook if he can come back healthy but then you'd be seriously jeopardizing your chances to contend in 2010. The situation has the potential to turn into a mess. If the Indians can't stay within a hope and a prayer of the division lead in the first half, the only card that Shapiro will have to play as the summer rolls on is to bring up the kids from Columbus and sell the fans on the idea of growing with the team, with an eye toward next year. I don't see Indians fans opening their wallets for that idea but it might just be Shapiro's only option.

3. I've never been an anti-Eric Wedge guy. I've always thought that for the most part, he's done a decent job with what he's been given. That being said, I think if after 40 games, the Indians aren't showing any signs of life, it might be time to make a move. If nothing else, it would allow the Indians to bring in a new voice and a fresh perspective. I also think it's high time for Derek Shelton to be relieved of his duties as well. I know people will point to the second half of last season but I've always had my doubts about Shelton. If you look at the Indians young position players, how many of them have truly improved their approaches at the plate during Shelton's tenure? As a team, the Indians still don't work themselves deep into counts, they strike out at an alarming rate, and they swing at an abnormally high number of pitches outside of the strike zone. You can even look at a guy like Sizemore, who by all accounts is just a phenomenal hitter, and see that his weaknesses really aren't getting any stronger. I just don't think Shelton is helping the team to develop disciplined young hitters. It's time for him to go.

4. As for the pitching staff, I think the bullpen will end up being fine. There are just too many decent arms in that pen for them to continue to struggle like they have. I also think that both Lee and Carmona will straighten things out to some degree and end up winning between 12-15 games apiece. I think Lewis isn't going to be back withe the big league team anytime soon and I suspect that Pavano will end up being this year's Jason Johnson. It's certainly not a rosey perspective, but looking forward to next year (and after all, it's already mid-April....why wouldn't we be looking forward to next year), the Indians would have a chance to piece together a decent rotation out of Lee, Carmona, Westbrook and then some combination of Reyes, Laffey, and Huff.

5. Here's something that really bothers me about the Indians: As a team, they have absolutely no speed. So, even when they string together a couple of base hits, they end up playing station to station and making the diamond look like a clogged toilet. They must improve this aspect of the team going forward. I know that speed is probably less important in the American League, but it is still a huge disadvantage to be completely devoid of good baserunners. For example, look at a guy like Ryan Garko. Yes, at times, he's a perfectly decent hitter, but if he's going to be a sloth on the basebaths, he at least needs to be able to hit for power. If he can't (and I think it's safe to say that he can't), I'd rather have a guy like Michael Brantley (and yes, I'm aware that they play different positions) who, although he may bring even less power, will be a threat every time he gets on base. This team has been slow for far too long. It's time to get faster and more athletic.

6. It really upsets me when I see the Indians swinging at first pitch after first pitch against good pitching like they did today with Halliday. I understand that when you're facing an ace, sometimes you only get one pitch in an at-bat that you can really drive, but if you keep making outs early in counts, you have no chance of getting to the other team's bullpen. Good teams always seem to work deep into counts and force other team's pitchers to throw strikes. The Indians . . . not so much. Again, I think some of the blame for this has to fall on Shelton and Wedge.

7. I think that if the Tribe isn't in contention at the All-Star break, the should explore the idea of trading Victor Martinez. I know that's going to rub a lot of people the wrong way but I think it makes a ton of baseball sense. I believe that the Indians have an option on Martinez for next year, but then after 2010, he would be a free agent (and of course, the Indians probably wouldn't be able to afford to re-sign him). If Victor is healthy and reestablishes himself as a premier hitting catcher/1B during the first half, at age 30 with a lot of gas left in the tank and a contract that plenty of teams could absorb, Martinez could bring in a huge haul. If you look at this team, they're probably a couple of years away from contending again with or without Martinez. If they moved him, they would still have an above-average catcher in Kelly Shoppach, along with the jewel of their farm system, Carlos Santana. With all of the teams out there that would fall all over themselves to get Martinez, the Indians should use their organizational depth at Catcher to bring in more prospects. Given their payroll limitations,the team is probably going to struggle to contend more than once every few years. If they can move Martinez (and maybe even Cliff Lee) now, they can create a bumper crop of top-level prospects to give them the chance of growing into a serious contender a couple years down the road.

That's all for now. Here's hoping we can get off the schneid tomorrow.

Read the rest of this article

We're All Thinking It: We Just Don't Say It

Well the Indians got blitzed in Texas and appear to have some serious problems, but for all of our sakes, I'll skip the gruesome recap. I'll just say that it's not hard to believe that a team with just two above-average starting pitchers, two threatening hitters, and a cleanup hitter that can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, might struggle to win games at the major league level. But I'll save the discussion of the overall roster for another day. Right now, it's the aforementioned cleanup-hitting DH that I'd really love to talk about.

I haven't really said a word about Travis Hafner since the last time his career was at all relevant to my rooting interests as an Indians fan. That was 2007 during the ALCS, and even then, his relevance had little to do with his performance and much more to do with the fact that he was in the starting lineup for a team on the verge of winning a title. Truthfully though, Travis Hafner hasn't been Travis Hafner since 2006. Now listen, by all accounts, Travis Hafner seems like a pretty good guy. His teammates seem to like him, he plays hard every day, and he's never said anything but positive things about the city of Cleveland. However, it has been those same endearing qualities that have shielded Hafner from what, for a less likeable player or one in a more intrusive media market, could have been a firestorm of criticism. Consider the facts:

1. Travis Hafner was not a highly regarded player in his youth. He was a 31st round draft pick out of Cowley Community College in Kansas in 1996 and never really distinguished himself as an elite prospect at the minor league level.

2. Hafner spent 5 years in the late 1990s and early 2000s in the Texas Rangers' farm system. During that period, the Rangers were absolutely loaded with steroid users. Although we can't know the full extent and the depths to which the steroid culture permeated the different levels of the Ranger organization, it is safe to say that during that period, the franchise was becoming the poster team for baseball's dark era. If you played in the Texas system in the late 90's, it's a pretty safe bet that you learned a thing or two about steroids.

3. Here are Hafner's numbers from age 25 to age 31 starting with plate appearances, then batting average, home runs, and finally, OPS:

25: 70, .242, 1, .716

26: 324, .254, 14, .812

27: 573, .311, 28, .993

28: 578, .305, 33, 1.003

29: 563, .308, 42, 1.097

30: 559, .266, 24, .837

31: 233, .197, 5, .628

I'm no statistician but I'd say that's a pretty a pretty steep curve on both sides of the crest. And keep in mind, we're talking about a six-year period here. In the life of an NFL running back, that's an eternity. In the career of a major league DH, six years is nothing, especially when they happen to span the end of player's youth and the beginning of his prime.

4. Baseball sluggers in general are not normally predisposed to such precipitous drops in ability. This isn't Ian Baker-Finch trying to find the fairway at the British or Rick Ankiel trying to throw a fastball for a strike. We're talking about a skill that once a player acquires, he generally continues to possess until his body begins to break down. Of course, there are exceptions to this general rule, but for the most part, All-Star sluggers don't just inexplicably fall off the map when they hit 30.

5. Pronk's decline can't be attributed to a specific injury. Yes, he broke a bone in his hand when he was beaned by C.J. Wilson on September 1, 2006, but that's not the type of injury that just ends a player's career. Plus, he played the entire 2007 season without any mention of that injury. In 2008, after a horrible start, he had his shoulder scoped, but mysteriously, the doctors never really ever found a problem with it. Am I the only one that finds that completely strange? James Andrews spent 45 minutes inside Hafner's shoulder and didn't find a damn thing wrong with it. We were told that the joint was "cleaned out" but were never offered any additional clarification as to what Andrews actually found that could have caused Hafner to lose all of his strength.

6. We've yet to hear of any mechanical issues with Hafner's swing. You'd think that after trying to work out of a "slump" for two years, if Hafner's problems had anything to do with his swing or approach at the plate, he and Derek Shelton would've figured it out by now.

7. Even though his shoulder joint is now apparently "clean," Hafner has lost virtually all of his bat speed. A player who was once perhaps the most feared in the American League can now have the bat absolutely blown out of his hands by a low 90's fastball on the inner-half of the plate. Moreover, even when he does connect, the words most apt to describe his power are "warning track."

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Hafner is now HALF THE SIZE that he used to be. This is easily the most alarming aspect of the entire ordeal and is also the inspiration behind my decision to write this post. I turned on the Rangers game the other day and almost fell out of my chair. Half is obviously an exaggeration, but for a guy who was once built like a lumberjack, Hafner now looks absolutely scrawny. This type of thing just doesn't happen to elite hitters in their early 30's. If anything, they continue to get bigger. I haven't seen what the Indians are listing Hafner at this year, but honestly, it doesn't make any difference. My eyes work. He's not nearly the same size that he was when he was hitting 30 and 40 bombs a year. Look at the two pictures above. One is from this year. The other is from Hafner's prime. Can you see the difference? If you can't, maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

And please, don't tell me that the loss of muscle mass is because of the surgery. He's a major leaguer. Every professional athlete is put through an intense rehab and weight training program after a procedure like the one Hafner underwent. I've yet to hear any reports of any of them suffering from irreversible shrinkage of the chest, arms, or head.

. . .

Now, forget for a minute that we're talking about Travis Hafner. Look at the last eight points but imagine that we're talking about a player for whom you never rooted or for whom you never felt any personal affinity. Play connect-the-dots for a minute. What conclusion would you draw?

So, what does this all mean? Well, I guess it means whatever you want it to mean. The thing is, you can't prove the negative: Hafner can never really prove that he wasn't on the juice. But, at the same time, the chances that any of us will ever be exposed to evidence implicating Hafner are remote at best. Baseball is primed to sweep the rest of the steroid era's dirty laundry under the rug. A few giant fish have been caught and disgraced, and based on the current HR numbers leaguewide, it appears that those who were not caught have been sufficiently deterred. In short, there remains little incentive to keep digging, especially around benign figures such as Pronk. We're just never going to know the answer.

Still, I think there is a point to all of this. We're all free to believe whatever we want to believe, but if you are like me, and are convinced, based on the overwhelming circumstantial evidence, that Hafner was juicing through at least the 2006 season, you have a right to be outraged. Hafner signed a four-year, $57 million extension during the 2007 all-star break. If he knew that the contract was premised on a level of performance that he could not, or perhaps did not intend to replicate, he defrauded the club by signing the deal. Now, the Indians are paying $13 million a year for a guy who has no place in a major-league lineup. If this were New York, we wouldn't care. For a team like the Indians and a city like Cleveland though, if my theory is correct, Hafner has screwed us all.

Finally, if Hafner was in fact roiding through his best years, Shapiro and Wedge had to know about it. That, above all else, is the most compelling defense Hafner's story has to offer. If Hafner was on the juice, a smart guy like Shapiro certainly knew about it; and if he did, it would seem horribly reckless for him to have given Hafner that extension. Of course, there is the possibility that 1) Shapiro suspected but didn't know for sure, and just figured whatever Hafner was doing, he would keep doing it, or 2) he knew exactly what Hafner was doing but thought, based on Hafner's popularity and ability to draw fans, he could squeeze enough out of him over the next four years to make him profitable.

In Conclusion, I don't really know what happened. My theory is based on nothing more than instinct and conjecture. All I know is that a lot of Cleveland fans are still holding out hope that Hafner will return to a level that, for whatever reason, drugs, injuries, or otherwise, I don't think he is ever capable of reaching again. I also know that the Indians are a mid-market team that owes a boatload of money to a guy who can't have more than a couple of months left as a "cleanup hitter," and probably doesn't have more than a couple more years left on a major league roster. And finally, I know that as an Indians fan, I really hope that Matt LaPorta is the real thing. Having watched multiple elite power hitters leave town over the years, and then another decide to stay, only to inexplicably fall off the face of the earth at the very outset of his prime, I need LaPorta to be as good as advertised . . . And unfortunately, unless another power hitter miraculously falls from the sky, the Indians are going to need him if they hope to contend in the years ahead.

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Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Cleveland Crushed In Opener

The Indians looked absolutely awful today in dropping their season opener to the Rangers 9-1. Cliff Lee continued his poor performance from Spring Training in giving up 7 runs and 10 hits in only five innings of work, looking nothing like the dominate Cy Young award winner of a year ago. Lee failed to consistently get ahead of hitters, which he excelled at last season, and made the cardinal sin of allowing four runs to score with two outs in the second inning.

Meanwhile, the offense was downright anemic against Kevin Millwood, managing only 5 hits and stranding nine runners. At no point in the game did the Tribe muster any serious threat other than the 4th when, with Grady on third and Victor on first, Hafner weakly grounded into an inning ending double play.

Even Jensen Lewis who had a very solid spring, was hit hard, giving up 2 runs and 4 hits in his inning of work, including a home run to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

So what to take away from this disappointing start to the season? Well, it's important not to get worked up over one bad game. Baseball games at the beginning of the year tend to feel more important than those from later in the season because we have less of a sample size to judge from. Through the course of a 162 game season, a team is going to have a few of these clunkers. If the date was July 6 rather than Opening Day, a loss like today's may be nothing but a mere bump in the road.

What does worry me is that I fear this year's team lacks an anchor in the rotation. Last year, Cliff Lee could be counted on to take the mound every fifth day and give the Indians a very good shot at a victory. I don't have the confidence that Lee is going to be able to repeat that role this season. Perhaps Lee's bad day could be attributed to the line drive he took off his pitching arm in the second inning (proceeding the 4 runs he allowed). Or perhaps Lee's day was a continuation of his spotty performances all spring. We know Lee is capable of being a much better pitcher than he showed today. Arlington Park is a difficult place to pitch successfully at and the Rangers tend to smack the ball pretty successfully against the Tribe. I think Lee's results this year will lie somewhere between his magical run of last year, and his disappointing 2007 season. On a side note - I was shocked to hear during the game that Lee threw to first base only 4 times the entire season last year to hold runners on. I know Lee's left-handed, which gives him an advantage in holding guys at first, but seriously, only 4 throws to first all season? That certainly isn't doing any favors for Victor or Kelly Shoppach.

In positive pitching performances, I was pleased to see Masa Kobayashi work a solid inning. Kobayashi's been treading thin ice with the team all Spring Training and it would be a big boost to the bullpen if he's able to straighten himself out sooner rather than later . Raffy Perez also continued his role as the most solid arm out of the pen, working a scoreless inning.

At the plate, Victor looked good swinging the bat - having the best at-bat of the day, a 10-pitch battle in the first inning. Prior to getting injured last season, I thought Victor was one of the best pure hitters in the game and I was glad to see some of that reemerge today.

Finally on Pronk Patrol: Hafner went 1-4, with the above-mentioned double play ground out. Though Hafner failed to get the ball out of the infield in his first two at-bats, I was pleased with his approach at the plate (read: he didn't seem to swing weakly at balls or grossly misjudge pitches) and even hit a single and scored the only run of the game. What's worried me most about Pronk, beyond his glaring absence of power, has been that he's seem to have lost his ability to judge pitches and the strike zone - resulting in his looking mismatched. I am optimistically hopefully that Pronk can contribute in some manner to the success of the team this year, but realistically believe he might be near the end of his rope. I'll make the bold prediction that for the Indians to make the playoffs this season, Hafner will have to hit over 20 home runs. I think less than 10 may be more likely.

Up Next for the Tribe: Wednesday Night 8:05 pm at Texas: Carmona vs. Padilla. Unlike Lee, I believe Carmona may end up being the anchor off the pitching staff this year. I hope he gets it started on Wednesday. Read the rest of this article

First Annual Cleveland Sports Blogs Fantasy Baseball League

With Opening Day rapidly approaching (tomorrow!), CMCR is excited to announce the First Annual Cleveland Sports Blog Fantasy Baseball League. We've gathered some of the paramount Cleveland Sports Blogs around to compete in a head-to-head battle of armchair baseball knowledge.

We've created this league for two distinct purposes. First, this league is going to serve as a friendly competition and chance for all the websites involved to prove who has the greatest fantasy baseball knowledge along the banks of Lake Erie. Writing for a blog, it's easy to step into the shoes of Eric Wedge or Mike Brown and state how we might do things differently, while never really facing the repercussions of our decisions. Now, instead of merely writing about how knowledgeable we are about baseball, we'll actually have to prove it or suffer the verbal abuse of our peers. It's a chance for you to see our differing baseball philosophies in action.

The impressive list of sites participating in the league include:

Baseball Digest

Benjamin Cox Random Thoughts

Cry Me A Cuyahoga River

Forest City Fanatics

Girl Out of Cleveland

Ontario Street

Shaver Sports

The Cleveland Fan

The Cleveland Sports Animal

Waiting For Next Year

Second, and more important than the self-serving purpose of above, this league is designed to be entertaining for the readers of all the participating sites. Weekly updates will be posted on this blog, and all season long you'll be able to follow every transaction and witty retort here. Many of the participating blogs in this league are quite well-connected and knowledgeable within baseball and may be even able to help you within your own fantasy leagues. I welcome any and all fantasy questions to be posted in the comments section below. Additionally, this league will also serve to unite several of the Cleveland Sports Blogs, hopefully creating better insights and interesting stories for all the Cleveland Sports fans out there reading.

Finally, not only will this league be available for you to follow, but as a loyal reader of CMCR, we are opening up the forum for your suggestions as to what the prize should be to the winner of this league. We've been considering having jerseys or t-shirts being made up of former Indians' greats -who wouldn't want to sport a Jerry Browne throwback? The individual who suggests the best prize may even be asked to compete next year. This league is for your entertainment - help us make it the best it can possibly be. Here's to a great season. Go Tribe! Read the rest of this article

A Guide To The Power Rankings

You may have noticed a new feature displayed on the CMCR main page: The Cleveland Athlete Power Rankings. This is something that I often think about on my own so I thought it might be fun to keep a running list of the most prominent athletes on the Cleveland sports scene. Just so there is no confusion as to what these rankings mean, I'll set forth the criteria used to make the list.

1. Only players who are still active in their respective sport and still playing in Cleveland

are eligible.

2. Talent, ability, and performance are only derivatively important. This poll is based more on fan notoriety and adoration. For example, Cliff Lee is coming off probably the greatest season by an Indians pitcher in history. Yet, he's ranked below Josh Cribbs, a very solid Browns

special teamer. Why? Well, I would guess that there are more people in Northeast Ohio that would call themselves Josh Cribbs fans than there are people who are particularly fond of Cliff Lee. This also explains why Brady Quinn, a player who has yet to accomplish anything in this city, is ranked 3rd ahead of more successful players like Victor Martinez and Z.

3. The season doesn't really matter. Obviously, in February, people are going to be fixated

on the Cavs. The same could be said of the Indians in July or the Browns in September. For the most part, the rankings attempt to ignore the obvious bias in favor of athletes whose sport is in season.

4. While season doesn't matter, sport does. This is a Browns town first and foremost and no matter how many dumps the team takes on its fans, they'll always be number one in the hearts of the majority of Northeast Ohioans. Thus, Browns players have a distinct advantage over the rest of the field. Fortunately, however, given that the Browns only have a few players who aren't despicable, the list has a good mix of the 3 major

Cleveland sports.

5. Ohio State counts as Cleveland for the purposes of these rankings. So, if and when Terrelle Pryor wins the heisman and/or a National Championship, he's eligible for the list.

So, there you have it. We'll try to update these rankings every couple of weeks or so. And, because the poll is supposed to be a measure of fan sentiment, we encourage you to comment in the discussions section under any posting to express your views on the rankings. If there is enough momentum for or against a particular decision that we've

made, I assure you that we'll change it. The purpose here is just to have a little fun and generate some good discussion.

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Constructing the Indians' Lineup by the Numbers

With Spring Training right around the corner, I know Eric Wedge has a lot on his plate. Does he grow the porn star mustache this year or does he leave that upper lip bare? How does he respond when Slider shoots him a suggestive belly jiggle in the hall? Where will he go to cry when Andy Marte begins clubbing home runs for his new team this season?

To ease Wedgie’s burden, I’ve decided to aide in constructing the perfect Indians’ lineup for the upcoming season. In fact, I’ll construct two different versions – one for when the Indians are facing a right-handed pitcher and one for when they face a lefty. Earlier this week, Biff made reference to the fact that the Indians' lineup reminds him of an empty hot dog bun, lacking the expected "meat" in the middle. And although I’m a vegetarian, I’ll even attempt to address Ol’ Biff’s concerns, devising the most efficient lineup the Indians have seen this side of Moneyball, and answering his query of "where's the beef?" So Wedgie, sit back, relax and read this, I’ll handle all the heavy lifting.

In constructing the perfect lineup, I’m going to focus on several factors. First, on-base percentage or OBP. OBP is figured by taking (H + BB + HBP), divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). The average major league baseball player has an OBP of .340. Why use OBP instead of the standard batting average statistic, you may ask? Well, batting average, though an obvious indication of a batter’s value, fails to tell the complete story. To really simplify matters, assume player X has 10 plate appearances, gets one hit, makes an out 4 times, and walks the remaining 5 appearances. Even though player X is hitting right at the Mendoza line (.200) he has still reached base an amazing 60% of the time or has an OBP of .600. OBP takes into account the ability of a player to reach base in any manner, and therefore reflects the greater chances that an individual player will either a) move another runner ahead or b) be in a position to score, even if he failed to get a hit.

In addition to looking at the OBP statistic, I’m also going to focus on a how a player hits in varying spots in the lineup. My goal is to find a spot in lineup in which each player hits higher than the average .340 OBP. Essentially, I’m going to try to maximize the efficiency of each player, hopefully resulting in the most productive lineup possible for the Tribe. And again, I’m going to try to do this for when the Indians face both a right-handed pitcher or for when they face a lefty. It may sound complicated and number intensive, but I promise it will be easier to follow than it seems. Let’s get started.

First, I'll present to you the lineups I would use on an almost daily basis. Then, I'll explain my seleictions by examining the overall numbers of each player.

THE LINEUPS:

Against a RHP:

1) Grady Sizemore, CF
2) Shin-Soo Choo, RF/LF
3) Travis Hafner, DH
4) Jhonny Peralta, SS
5) Victor Martinez, C
6) Ryan Garko, 1B
7) Ben Francisco, LF/RF
8) Mark DeRosa, 3B
9) Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B

Against a LHP:

1) Grady Sizemore, CF
2) Shin-Soo Choo, RF/LF
3) Ryan Garko, 1B/DH
4) Jhonny Peralta, SS
5) Victor Martinez, 1B/DH/C
6) Kelly Shoppach, C/DH
7) Ben Francisco, LF/RF
8) Mark DeRosa 3B
9) Asdrubal Cabrera 2B

Below, I provide a comprehensive justification for why I put a specific player where I put them in the lineup, focusing mainly on their OBP and their comfort hitting in a certain spot in the order.

Outfielders:

Grady Sizemore: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2141 PA (“Plate Appearances”), .298 AVG, .389 OBP
  
  
• Against LHP: 968 PA, .238 AVG, .328 OBP

Analysis: Unlike every other Indians' hitter, I'm not going to assess Grady's numbers in any other spot than the lead off position because other than a few PA here and there, Grady has been the Indians’ lead off hitter since the 2005 season. In 2810 PA in that span, he has put up impressive numbers, with a .281 average, a .373 OBP, 111 SB, 103 HR (including 18 HR to lead off a game) and 312 RBI. In fact, the only other spot in the lineup that Grady has more than 100 PA is hitting 8th, where he has amassed a dismissal .263 AVG and .288 OBP.

There has been talk about moving Grady out of the lead off spot further down the lineup to take advantage of his power numbers, but the fact remains the Indians really don’t have a viable alternative to hit at the top of the order other than Grady (or possibly Michael Brantley, who I’ll discuss briefly below). Grady has only had 41 PA in the 3rd slot of the lineup, where most people want him hitting if not at the top of the order. Despite the fact that Grady's power numbers may suggest placing him near the middle of the order, necessity dictates that he remains batting first. Plus, Grady has indicated that he likes leading off the game and it since it obviously seems to be working, whom am I to mess with success?

The one downfall Grady has a lead off hitter is the rate at which he strikes out. For his career, he has struck out 604 times in 3109 PA, or about an average of one strikeout per every 5 PA. That’s a pretty high rate for a lead off hitter. And if we really want to nitpick, Grady’s numbers against LHP are rather mediocre. But, given the lack of alternatives and the fact that Grady is the Indians’ most popular player, expect to see him leading almost every game this season regardless of who's on the mound for the opposing team.

Shin-Soo Choo: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 474 PA, .300 BA, .390 OBP, 14 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 116 PA, .257 BA, .322 OBP, 3 HR
  

Hitting 3rd:

• 81 PA, .343 AVG, .420 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 5th in the Lineup (Most Career Plate Appearances):

• 285 PA, .278 AVG, .363 OBP, 6 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 84 PA, .416 AVG, .452 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 51 PA, .220 AVG, .353 OBP

Hitting 8th:

• 75 PA, .180 AVG, .333 OBP

Analysis: Like Grady, Choo hits right-handed pitchers much better than he hits lefties. While his OBP and AVG aren’t terrible playing against lefties, Choo’s numbers are far above the league average when he has the favorable match up against a right-handed pitcher. Choo actually finished near the top of the entire AL last season with an OBP of .397 which indicates that he should probably be playing everyday.

Choo’s lineup numbers show that he would be a productive 3rd, 5th, or 6th hitter. However, because his OBP is so high, placing him second in the lineup makes some sense, despite his lack of experience hitting there. While the numbers seem to say that Choo should hit 6th, with his ability to get on base close to 40% of his plate appearances, I'd prefer to see Victor, Hafner and Peralta hitting behind Choo, rather than Asdrubal or Ben Francisco. Because of that, I think Choo might be an ideal second hitter in the Tribe's newly constructed lineup.

Ben Francisco: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 423 PA, .266 BA, .323 OBP, 13 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 142 PA, .270 BA, .345 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 79 PA, .261 AVG, .354 OBP, 2 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 304 PA, .257 AVG, .322 OBP, 11 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 20 PA, .389 AVG, .421 OBP, 1 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 21 PA, .333 AVG, .429 OBP, 1 HR

Analysis: Francisco has shown a rather consistent ability to hit both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, hitting with a slightly higher than average OBP against LHP. Though the majority of PA Francisco has gotten have been in the 3rd position in the lineup, in limited appearances in the 6th and 7th slots, Francisco has shown the ability to be a productive hitter. Slotting him further down the lineup might help to remove some of the pressure off him as he enters his sophomore season.

David Dellucci: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2827 PA, .266 BA, .350 OBP, 96 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 365 PA, .194 BA, .258 OBP, 5 HR
  

Dellucci has had over 400 PA hitting in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th spots in the lineup. Since I don’t really want to see Dellucci hitting anywhere for the Tribe, here are the spots where he has put up his best numbers:

Hitting 2nd:

• 492 PA, .302 AVG, .370 OBP, 21 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 543 PA, .268 AVG, .350 OBP, 16 HR

Analysis: Dellucci should NEVER, EVER, EVER play against a left-handed pitcher. Dellucci is the very definition of a platoon player. What's sad is that the Indians have so much money tied up in what amounts to half a player. With the talent of minor league outfielders that the Indians have, it seems apparent that the team would be better served cutting bait with the Looch, as even one mediocre whole player is better than one mediocre half player. However, knowing how the Tribe operates, Dellucci will get his fair share at-bats until it becomes apparent (or well after it becomes apparent) that he cannot get the job done anymore. If, and this is a big if, Wedge ever feels the maddening compulsion to insert Dellucci into the starting lineup, he should hit him 2nd against a right-handed pitcher only. NO EXCEPTIONS.

Michael Brantley: (Bats: left-handed)

And who might be that minor league candidate to take Dellucci's spot on the major league roster? My choice is Michael Brantley. Now, I realize Brantley has never played beyond Double A. But look at the numbers he put up for Class AA Huntsville last year, before being traded to the Indians, .319 AVG, with 80 runs, 17 doubles, two triples, four homers and 40 RBI in 106 games. He also stole 28 bases in 36 attempts and had 50 walks against only 27 strikeouts. What I like best about Brantley however, is his career .399 OBP, which not only would have been best on the Tribe last year, but fourth in the entire American League. And, Baseball America rated Brantley as having the best strike zone judgment and the best base running skills in the Southern League last season.

What makes Brantley so attractive is both his ability to get on base and the he brings some speed to this team (something which it greatly lacks). In fact, Brantley appears to be an almost prototypical lead off hitter. His emergence could potentially allow the Indians to begin to slot Grady further down the lineup. Or, Brantley could be a more than adequate second hitter in the lineup.

Still not convinced? Look at this information from the http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com comparing Brantley to a former Cleveland Indian lead off hitter, near and dear to our hearts:

Brantley's Minor League Career (Age 18-21):

• 383 games, 1392 AB, 53 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 199 BB, 142 K, 104 SB, .311/.399/.372/.771

Kenny Lofton's Minor League Career (Age 21-24):

• 363 games, 1423 AB, 46 2B, 24 3B, 6 HR, 159 BB, 266 K, 168 SB, .300/.370/.379/.749

I’m just saying….

Catchers:

Kelly Shoppach: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 528 PA, .238 BA, .306 OBP, 19 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 188 PA, .293 BA, .373 OBP, 12 HR
  

Hitting 6th:

• 94 PA, .316 AVG, .426 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 128 PA, .254 AVG, .325 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 189 PA, .198 AVG, .257 OBP, 6 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 216 PA, .283 AVG, .325 OBP, 9 HR

Analysis: Despite the breakthrough year that Shoppach had last year, his righty/lefty splits indicate a far greater disparity than one might have initially thought. In fact, Shoppach’s power shows itself at a far greater rate against left-handed pitchers, and his OBP is almost 70 points higher hitting against lefties. Shoppach might even be best served hitting solely against left-handed pitchers.

Obviously, our starting pitcher also impacts Shoppach’s appearance in the lineup. There are going to be days when he's catching Cliff Lee and he faces a right-handed pitcher. But, when the matchups allow for it, Shoppach should be on the bench against right-handed opposition. When Shoppach does play, slotting him in the 6th spot appears to be the Indians’ best bet, as his OBP was far over .400 and he averaged a home run per every 10 PA hitting in that spot. Before we hand Shoppach and everyday spot in the lineup, he really needs to improve against righties. Otherwise, if Shoppach gets exposed more this season, the Indians may have missed an opportune time to trade him when his value was at its highest. Especially with the team's surplus of minor league catching talent.

Victor Martinez: (Bats: both)

• Against RHP (as a LH hitter): 1989 PA, .303 BA, .368 OBP, 63 HR

• Against LHP (as a RH hitter): 1019 PA, .289 BA, .373 OBP, 25 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 484 PA, .260 AVG, .347 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 1595 PA, .301 AVG, .369 OBP, 55 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 680 PA, .319 AVG, .388 OBP, 17 HR

Analysis: Without a doubt, Victor is the Indians’ most consistent hitter, while also providing the benefit being a switch hitter. Not only is Victor the Indians’ best hitter, he also is one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. While he exhibits slightly more power hitting left-handed, Victor is the one name, besides Grady’s, who should be penciled in the lineup every single day without a second thought. Though Victor’s numbers indicate that he’d be successful at any place in the lineup, his AVG and OBP indicate that he might put up his best numbers hitting 5th. Again, with the placing players with high OBP before Victor, like Choo and Grady, Victor who has a very high OBP himself, will have runners on base to drive home. As long as Victor is healthy this year, I expect him to return to his All-Star form.

Infielders:

Asdrubal Cabrera: (Bats: both)

• Against RHP (as a LH hitter): 451 PA, .241 BA, .333 OBP, 5 HR

• Against LHP: (as a RH hitter) 150 PA, .346 BA, .403 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 191 PA, .259 AVG, .324 OBP

Hitting 8th:

• 19 PA, .353 AVG, .421 OBP

Hitting 9th:

• 329 PA, .293 AVG, .379 OBP

Analysis: Cabrera is the other switch hitter in the Indians lineup. Unlike Martinez, however, Asdrubal lacks the same constancy from both sides of the plate, hitting over 100 points lower when batting left-handed. Factoring in his defensive abilities, it’s hard to imagine that Cabrera won’t be getting the majority of the starts at SS. However, from a purely offensive prospective, playing him every day might create a giant hole in the lineup when facing a right-handed starter. When Cabrera is in the lineup, it should be near the bottom, hitting in either 8th or 9th. And though the team has tried to pass off Asdrubal as a potential number two hitter, I'd much rather have Choo's high OBP at the second slot, rather than Cabrera's which is substantially lower.

Mark DeRosa: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 2113 PA, .270 BA, .337 OBP, 44 HR

• Against LHP: 867 PA, .302 BA, .373 OBP, 25 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 400 PA, .281 AVG, .334 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 396 PA, .288 AVG, .357 OBP, 10 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 783 PA, .289 AVG, .371 OBP, 19 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 521 PA, .259 AVG, .342 OBP, 13 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 458 PA, .283 AVG, .340 OBP, 8 HR

Analysis: The Indians' newest offensive weapon provides Wedge with a number of options, in terms of where to hit DeRosa in the lineup. As is apparent above, DeRosa has shown the knack to hit successfully from almost where he's been asserted in the lineup. Though most believe that DeRosa will hit second with the Indians, I believe that the Indians should taken advantage the flexibility that he provides the team, and put him further down in the 8th spot. Not only will having DeRosa hit eighth provide some insurance for those hitting in front of him, it also serves to set the table for Grady and Choo. And, if another batter slumps, DeRosa could then be moved up to provide a spark. Having an individual like DeRosa can take the pressure off a number of other hitters in the lineup, especially if he can deliver a key hit from the eighth spot in the lineup.

Jhonny Peralta: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 2024 PA, .267 BA, .331 OBP, 53 HR

• Against LHP: 787 PA, .271 BA, .345 OBP, 32 HR

Jhonny has hit in a number of spots, and in fact has 200 PA in the 3rd thru 9th spots. His best numbers are in the following spots:

Hitting 3rd:

• 640 PA, .255 AVG, .340 OBP, 22 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 378 PA, .300 AVG, .360 OBP, 12 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 518 PA, .292 AVG, .356 OBP, 14 HR

Analysis: Peralta, like Victor, puts up similar numbers, regardless of whose on the mound. Jhonny really began to flourish last year when he was inserted into the cleanup role on the team, almost by default. Based on the production he showed hitting fourth, I would start the season keeping him in that position. 14 of Jhonny's 23 home runs came last season with no one on base. Moving him into the cleanup spot will allow the team to capitalize on his power by having runners on base when he launches one into the seats. And I can only assume that with his 20/20 vision, they'll be plenty more home runs to come this season.

Jamey Carroll: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 1498 PA, .267 BA, .348 OBP, 6 HR

• Against LHP: 659 PA, .286 BA, .358 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 1st:

• 575 PA, .264 AVG, .339 OBP, 4HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 995 PA, .264 AVG, .342 OBP, 2HR

Hitting 8th:

• 286 PA, .293 AVG, .375 OBP, 1 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 142 PA, .325 AVG, .407 OBP, 2 HR

Analysis: Carroll puts up decent numbers against both righties and lefties, and because of that, he should be used to spell Cabrera when the Indians are facing a right-handed pitcher. As a utility player, Carroll provides an above average OBP, which is good considering he provides almost no power. When he does fill in for a regular, Jamey should hit out of the ninth spot in the lineup. And if Cabrera once again slumps this season, Carroll can be an adequate, but hopefully temporary, replacement.

Ryan Garko: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 962 PA, .271 BA, .339 OBP, 30 HR

• Against LHP: 352 PA, .315 BA, .392 OBP, 12 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 327 PA, .280 AVG, .358 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 327 PA, .251 AVG, .327 OBP, 13 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 147 PA, .297 AVG, .359 OBP, 10 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 115 PA, .300 AVG, .374 OBP, 4 HR

Analysis: Given Garko's up and down season last year, I was surprised to see that his numbers, while better left-handed pitching, were surprisingly decent. In fact, had I seen just the numbers, I would have probably switched Garko's and Shoppach's numbers, just based on the results of last season. And even despite the inconsistent season Garko had put forth last year, he still drove in 90 runs.

The Garko/Hafner/Shoppach/Martinez collection for three positions (1B, DH, and C) is going to require some creative balancing from Wedge. Especially, since both Garko and Shoppach hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching. When we look at Hafner's numbers in a minute, we'll see that he's actually better facing right-handed pitching. The Indians might be best served batting Garko near the middle of the order against lefties, and then using him to fill in every once and awhile against righties, assuming Hafner is at full strength. If not, Garko becomes an everyday player.

Travis Hafner: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2004 PA, .290 BA, .395 OBP, 111 HR

• Against LHP: 1003 PA, .267 BA, .382 OBP, 36 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 1165 PA, .273 AVG, .392 OBP, 55 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 918 PA, .294 AVG, .405 OBP, 54 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 392 PA, .283 AVG, .385 OBP, 11 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 287 PA, .313 AVG, .392 OBP, 17 HR

Analysis: Hafner remains the great question mark of 2009. Can we assume that a fully healthy Hafner will provide anywhere close to the numbers we saw him put up in his prime? Probably not, at least in terms of power numbers. Something more worrisome to me than Hafner's lack of power was the fact that he seemed to lose his ability to judge the strike zone. Even in 2007, when Hafner's power numbers decreased (only 24 HR), he still had an OBP of .385. Last year, that number dropped to .305. In 2007, Hafner drew 102 walks in 661 PA, or one walk per every 6.5 PA. Last year, 27 walks in 198 PA or one walk per every 10 PA.

I'm hoping Hafner was pressing and trying to overcompensate for his injury by swinging at pitches he normally would have laid off of. I'm sure as he began to feel the pressure, Pronk wanted to crush any possible pitch to show that he was still healthy. After spending an extended period recuperating, it will be Hafner's walk totals, not his power totals, which indicate if he's back to "normal."

Balancing out the impressive OBP that Hafner has shown in the past, while the sudden decline last year and his injury, initially, I might play Hafner solely against right-handed pitchers. Especially because the majority of Hafner's power comes against righties. If Hafner shows he's healthy, moving him back into an everyday role as a DH may be warranted. Again, his role will be shaped in part by how Garko, Shoppach and Martinez are hitting.


Andy Marte: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 399 PA, .195 BA, .239 OBP, 6 HR

• Against LHP: 162 PA, .252 BA, .329 OBP, 3 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 163 PA, .227 AVG, .266 OBP, 0 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 266 PA, .205 AVG, .265 OBP, 6 HR

Analysis: For the sake of comprehensiveness, I'll examine Marte's numbers even though I don't believe that he'll make the team without a monster spring training. Marte has shown no offensive ability in the majors to date, and unfortunately I don't see him breaking the trend in an Indians' uniform. Even the memory of Brandon Phillips doesn't warrant keeping him around unless he shows some life this spring.

Josh Barfield: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 788 PA, .259 BA, .288 OBP, 7 HR

• Against LHP: 267 PA, .268 BA, .308 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 552 PA, .277 AVG, .309 OBP, 8 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 552 PA, .233 AVG, .258 OBP, 2 HR

Analysis: I was a big Josh Barfield supporter ... until I looked at the numbers. Barfield does not walk. Ever. His OBP is lower than most major leaguers batting average. Barfield has only drawn
44 BB in 1055 PA or about 4 walks out of every 100 PA. Until Barfield can consistently get on base, he's value to the Indians is extremely limited. And with an option remaining, a poor spring may actually keep Marte on the roster.

Luis Valbuena: (Bats: left-handed)

Given the poor choice between Marte and Barfield for the final infield bench spot, Valbuena, acquired in the F-Gut trade, might be find his way onto the major league roster by the end of spring training. His numbers in his minor career include a. 270 BA and a .346 OBP. Given the choice between Valbuena, Marte, and Barfield, the Indians may want to explore bringing in a cheap veteran for the last infield bench spot, if one can be had at a reasonable price. Perhaps a Ray Durham or Mark Grudzielanek, both of who are still available.

Final Thoughts:

Given the number crunching I did above, the lineups I have constructed serve to maximize the OBP numbers and AVG of the team, given the prior history of all the players. While by no means ideal, making minor adjustments like moving Choo up in the order and benching Shoppach against right-handed pitchers will help to make this Indians' team even more productive than last season's squad. While Biff complains that this team lacks the "meat," I believe this team has the ability to play successful station to station baseball, consistently putting runners on the base paths and creating scoring opportunities. I encourage you, Eric Wedge, to consider using both my lineups and to maybe grow out a fu manchu for the upcoming season. (Photos courtesy of Lori Griffin and are subject to copyright.) Read the rest of this article