Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Tribe 'Snaps' Losing Streak

The Indians finally decided to show up for the 2009 season, winning their first game today 8-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays. Here are my brief thoughts on the game.

1. I was in attendance at the game today and it was the smallest turnout I can remember seeing since the Indians moved into the new stadium. Announced attendance was at 14,216, which according to ESPN is 32.7% capacity and it seemed much emptier than that. The upper deck was almost completely empty - at one point being populated by more birds than fans. I know it was a) Easter b) Cold c) the Tribe has been playing poorly and d) the Cavs were playing the Celtics in the Q (1 more game to clinch home court throughout the playoffs!) but it was disheartening to the see the stadium so empty so early in the season. If the Indians fall out of contention sooner rather than later, we may start see old Stadium-sized crowds returning. Given the choice between the Cavs and the Indians right now, I think most fans would choose to spend their limited resources on a winner.

2. Anthony Reyes was solid, but not spectacular today. However, in comparison to the recent starting pitching of the Indians, he was an All-Star. Reyes had some trouble locating his pitches (only 53 of his 96 pitches were for strikes) and walked three batters, but other than his last inning of work, kept the damage to a minimum.

3. Like Reyes, Blue Jays' starter David Purcey had all sorts of trouble finding the plate. I don't know if it was the cold temperature, but Purcey bounced at least ten balls and sailed two over the head of Rod Barajas. Somehow, despite this wildness and walking 6 batters, Purcey also managed to strikeout ten Indians. Fellow CMCR writer, Biff, who attended the game as well, pointed out that the Indians showed some awful plate discipline today - and helped Purcey out of a couple situations that could have been a lot worse.

4. Before the game, Biff and I were talking about the impact that speed can have on a team. Grady Sizemore showed that in the first inning, creating a run himself ala Kenny Lofton. Sizemore walked to lead off the game, stole second, went to third on a wild pitch by Purcey and scored when Barajas threw the ball into the outfield. Though Sizemore would have been dead at third with a good throw, because of his speed, Barajas was forced to rush his throw and the Indians were gifted a run without the aid of a hit in the inning. Shin-Soo Choo also stole a base in the game.

5. Mark DeRosa gave the Indians a 3-0 lead when he launched his first home run of the season into the left-field bleachers. I was glad to see DeRosa hit one out as I was worried his power numbers might be affected negatively leaving the wind-aided confines of Wrigley Field. DeRosa still looks a little uncomfortable at the plate, after a very solid Spring Training. It's possible he's pressing a bit, trying to make an immediate impact with his new team.

6. Trevor Crowe provided the highlight of the season thus far. With runners on second and third and two outs, the Blue Jays chose to pitch around Ryan Garko issuing the "unintentional-intentional" walk. Trevor Crowe came to the plate with the bases loaded, looking for his first major league hit, and promptly struck out. Crowe then snapped his bat over his knee in frustration - a throwback to Bo Jackson. Then, in a twist of baseball fate, Crowe came back two innings later in the same situation, two outs with the bases loaded. This time, Crowe ripped a double to right-center scoring two runs. It was good to see Crowe not let his first at-bat get into his head and come through with a key hit in a key situation. The more Crowe produces, the greater the chance we will not be seeing Dellucci on the field again.

7. Pronk Patrol: Travis Hafner looked awful in his first three at-bats. Two swinging strike outs and a caught looking for the hat trick. However, Pronk worked a walk in his fourth plate appearance and in the ninth inning, with the Indians clinging to a one-run lead, hit a no-doubter into the right-field stands, providing two very large insurance runs. If you told most fans before the season started that Pronk would be batting .300 with 3 HRs a week in, they'd be thrilled. I'm going to give Pronk the benefit of the doubt in saying that he looks like someone working to regain their comfort level at the plate. He's had some bad swings so far this season, but he's also had some very, very good ones, reminiscent of Pronk swings from the past. The swing Hafner had when he hit the double in the first game of the series against the Blue Jays was the best swing I've seen Hafner had in two years. He's now hit home runs in three straight games. I'm not a believer that he can keep this up for the course of the season yet, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

8. Jhonny Peralta draws the ire of a lof of Indians' fans for his defense, sometimes deservedly so. However, his offensive production often goes overlooked. It might surprise you to learn that Peralta lead the American League in home-runs from the shortstop position last year with 23. Today he went 3 for 5, raising his batting average on the season to .333. He had multiple hit games every game in the series. Peralta seems to approach the plate with a Manny Ramirez mentality - he seems to have no short-term memory of any previous poor at-bats. I think that he can be a steadying force in the lineup.

9. Finally, Kerry Wood was lights out today, striking out the side in the 9th inning on 13 pitches. Wood was hitting the high nineties on the rader gun and just attacked the Blue Jays hitters. Hard to think that at this time last season we were being subjected to Joe Borowski's 80 MPH meatballs. Wood also seemed to energize the crowd, receiving one of the largest cheers all day when he took the mound. Hopefully he will have a save situation to pitch in sometime in the near future.

Tribe begins its series at Kansas City (3-3) tomorrow at 8:10. Carmona (0-1 10.80 ERA) will be looking for his first win against Zach Greinke (1-0 0.00 ERA) Read the rest of this article

We're All Thinking It: We Just Don't Say It

Well the Indians got blitzed in Texas and appear to have some serious problems, but for all of our sakes, I'll skip the gruesome recap. I'll just say that it's not hard to believe that a team with just two above-average starting pitchers, two threatening hitters, and a cleanup hitter that can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, might struggle to win games at the major league level. But I'll save the discussion of the overall roster for another day. Right now, it's the aforementioned cleanup-hitting DH that I'd really love to talk about.

I haven't really said a word about Travis Hafner since the last time his career was at all relevant to my rooting interests as an Indians fan. That was 2007 during the ALCS, and even then, his relevance had little to do with his performance and much more to do with the fact that he was in the starting lineup for a team on the verge of winning a title. Truthfully though, Travis Hafner hasn't been Travis Hafner since 2006. Now listen, by all accounts, Travis Hafner seems like a pretty good guy. His teammates seem to like him, he plays hard every day, and he's never said anything but positive things about the city of Cleveland. However, it has been those same endearing qualities that have shielded Hafner from what, for a less likeable player or one in a more intrusive media market, could have been a firestorm of criticism. Consider the facts:

1. Travis Hafner was not a highly regarded player in his youth. He was a 31st round draft pick out of Cowley Community College in Kansas in 1996 and never really distinguished himself as an elite prospect at the minor league level.

2. Hafner spent 5 years in the late 1990s and early 2000s in the Texas Rangers' farm system. During that period, the Rangers were absolutely loaded with steroid users. Although we can't know the full extent and the depths to which the steroid culture permeated the different levels of the Ranger organization, it is safe to say that during that period, the franchise was becoming the poster team for baseball's dark era. If you played in the Texas system in the late 90's, it's a pretty safe bet that you learned a thing or two about steroids.

3. Here are Hafner's numbers from age 25 to age 31 starting with plate appearances, then batting average, home runs, and finally, OPS:

25: 70, .242, 1, .716

26: 324, .254, 14, .812

27: 573, .311, 28, .993

28: 578, .305, 33, 1.003

29: 563, .308, 42, 1.097

30: 559, .266, 24, .837

31: 233, .197, 5, .628

I'm no statistician but I'd say that's a pretty a pretty steep curve on both sides of the crest. And keep in mind, we're talking about a six-year period here. In the life of an NFL running back, that's an eternity. In the career of a major league DH, six years is nothing, especially when they happen to span the end of player's youth and the beginning of his prime.

4. Baseball sluggers in general are not normally predisposed to such precipitous drops in ability. This isn't Ian Baker-Finch trying to find the fairway at the British or Rick Ankiel trying to throw a fastball for a strike. We're talking about a skill that once a player acquires, he generally continues to possess until his body begins to break down. Of course, there are exceptions to this general rule, but for the most part, All-Star sluggers don't just inexplicably fall off the map when they hit 30.

5. Pronk's decline can't be attributed to a specific injury. Yes, he broke a bone in his hand when he was beaned by C.J. Wilson on September 1, 2006, but that's not the type of injury that just ends a player's career. Plus, he played the entire 2007 season without any mention of that injury. In 2008, after a horrible start, he had his shoulder scoped, but mysteriously, the doctors never really ever found a problem with it. Am I the only one that finds that completely strange? James Andrews spent 45 minutes inside Hafner's shoulder and didn't find a damn thing wrong with it. We were told that the joint was "cleaned out" but were never offered any additional clarification as to what Andrews actually found that could have caused Hafner to lose all of his strength.

6. We've yet to hear of any mechanical issues with Hafner's swing. You'd think that after trying to work out of a "slump" for two years, if Hafner's problems had anything to do with his swing or approach at the plate, he and Derek Shelton would've figured it out by now.

7. Even though his shoulder joint is now apparently "clean," Hafner has lost virtually all of his bat speed. A player who was once perhaps the most feared in the American League can now have the bat absolutely blown out of his hands by a low 90's fastball on the inner-half of the plate. Moreover, even when he does connect, the words most apt to describe his power are "warning track."

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Hafner is now HALF THE SIZE that he used to be. This is easily the most alarming aspect of the entire ordeal and is also the inspiration behind my decision to write this post. I turned on the Rangers game the other day and almost fell out of my chair. Half is obviously an exaggeration, but for a guy who was once built like a lumberjack, Hafner now looks absolutely scrawny. This type of thing just doesn't happen to elite hitters in their early 30's. If anything, they continue to get bigger. I haven't seen what the Indians are listing Hafner at this year, but honestly, it doesn't make any difference. My eyes work. He's not nearly the same size that he was when he was hitting 30 and 40 bombs a year. Look at the two pictures above. One is from this year. The other is from Hafner's prime. Can you see the difference? If you can't, maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

And please, don't tell me that the loss of muscle mass is because of the surgery. He's a major leaguer. Every professional athlete is put through an intense rehab and weight training program after a procedure like the one Hafner underwent. I've yet to hear any reports of any of them suffering from irreversible shrinkage of the chest, arms, or head.

. . .

Now, forget for a minute that we're talking about Travis Hafner. Look at the last eight points but imagine that we're talking about a player for whom you never rooted or for whom you never felt any personal affinity. Play connect-the-dots for a minute. What conclusion would you draw?

So, what does this all mean? Well, I guess it means whatever you want it to mean. The thing is, you can't prove the negative: Hafner can never really prove that he wasn't on the juice. But, at the same time, the chances that any of us will ever be exposed to evidence implicating Hafner are remote at best. Baseball is primed to sweep the rest of the steroid era's dirty laundry under the rug. A few giant fish have been caught and disgraced, and based on the current HR numbers leaguewide, it appears that those who were not caught have been sufficiently deterred. In short, there remains little incentive to keep digging, especially around benign figures such as Pronk. We're just never going to know the answer.

Still, I think there is a point to all of this. We're all free to believe whatever we want to believe, but if you are like me, and are convinced, based on the overwhelming circumstantial evidence, that Hafner was juicing through at least the 2006 season, you have a right to be outraged. Hafner signed a four-year, $57 million extension during the 2007 all-star break. If he knew that the contract was premised on a level of performance that he could not, or perhaps did not intend to replicate, he defrauded the club by signing the deal. Now, the Indians are paying $13 million a year for a guy who has no place in a major-league lineup. If this were New York, we wouldn't care. For a team like the Indians and a city like Cleveland though, if my theory is correct, Hafner has screwed us all.

Finally, if Hafner was in fact roiding through his best years, Shapiro and Wedge had to know about it. That, above all else, is the most compelling defense Hafner's story has to offer. If Hafner was on the juice, a smart guy like Shapiro certainly knew about it; and if he did, it would seem horribly reckless for him to have given Hafner that extension. Of course, there is the possibility that 1) Shapiro suspected but didn't know for sure, and just figured whatever Hafner was doing, he would keep doing it, or 2) he knew exactly what Hafner was doing but thought, based on Hafner's popularity and ability to draw fans, he could squeeze enough out of him over the next four years to make him profitable.

In Conclusion, I don't really know what happened. My theory is based on nothing more than instinct and conjecture. All I know is that a lot of Cleveland fans are still holding out hope that Hafner will return to a level that, for whatever reason, drugs, injuries, or otherwise, I don't think he is ever capable of reaching again. I also know that the Indians are a mid-market team that owes a boatload of money to a guy who can't have more than a couple of months left as a "cleanup hitter," and probably doesn't have more than a couple more years left on a major league roster. And finally, I know that as an Indians fan, I really hope that Matt LaPorta is the real thing. Having watched multiple elite power hitters leave town over the years, and then another decide to stay, only to inexplicably fall off the face of the earth at the very outset of his prime, I need LaPorta to be as good as advertised . . . And unfortunately, unless another power hitter miraculously falls from the sky, the Indians are going to need him if they hope to contend in the years ahead.

Read the rest of this article

Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Cleveland Crushed In Opener

The Indians looked absolutely awful today in dropping their season opener to the Rangers 9-1. Cliff Lee continued his poor performance from Spring Training in giving up 7 runs and 10 hits in only five innings of work, looking nothing like the dominate Cy Young award winner of a year ago. Lee failed to consistently get ahead of hitters, which he excelled at last season, and made the cardinal sin of allowing four runs to score with two outs in the second inning.

Meanwhile, the offense was downright anemic against Kevin Millwood, managing only 5 hits and stranding nine runners. At no point in the game did the Tribe muster any serious threat other than the 4th when, with Grady on third and Victor on first, Hafner weakly grounded into an inning ending double play.

Even Jensen Lewis who had a very solid spring, was hit hard, giving up 2 runs and 4 hits in his inning of work, including a home run to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

So what to take away from this disappointing start to the season? Well, it's important not to get worked up over one bad game. Baseball games at the beginning of the year tend to feel more important than those from later in the season because we have less of a sample size to judge from. Through the course of a 162 game season, a team is going to have a few of these clunkers. If the date was July 6 rather than Opening Day, a loss like today's may be nothing but a mere bump in the road.

What does worry me is that I fear this year's team lacks an anchor in the rotation. Last year, Cliff Lee could be counted on to take the mound every fifth day and give the Indians a very good shot at a victory. I don't have the confidence that Lee is going to be able to repeat that role this season. Perhaps Lee's bad day could be attributed to the line drive he took off his pitching arm in the second inning (proceeding the 4 runs he allowed). Or perhaps Lee's day was a continuation of his spotty performances all spring. We know Lee is capable of being a much better pitcher than he showed today. Arlington Park is a difficult place to pitch successfully at and the Rangers tend to smack the ball pretty successfully against the Tribe. I think Lee's results this year will lie somewhere between his magical run of last year, and his disappointing 2007 season. On a side note - I was shocked to hear during the game that Lee threw to first base only 4 times the entire season last year to hold runners on. I know Lee's left-handed, which gives him an advantage in holding guys at first, but seriously, only 4 throws to first all season? That certainly isn't doing any favors for Victor or Kelly Shoppach.

In positive pitching performances, I was pleased to see Masa Kobayashi work a solid inning. Kobayashi's been treading thin ice with the team all Spring Training and it would be a big boost to the bullpen if he's able to straighten himself out sooner rather than later . Raffy Perez also continued his role as the most solid arm out of the pen, working a scoreless inning.

At the plate, Victor looked good swinging the bat - having the best at-bat of the day, a 10-pitch battle in the first inning. Prior to getting injured last season, I thought Victor was one of the best pure hitters in the game and I was glad to see some of that reemerge today.

Finally on Pronk Patrol: Hafner went 1-4, with the above-mentioned double play ground out. Though Hafner failed to get the ball out of the infield in his first two at-bats, I was pleased with his approach at the plate (read: he didn't seem to swing weakly at balls or grossly misjudge pitches) and even hit a single and scored the only run of the game. What's worried me most about Pronk, beyond his glaring absence of power, has been that he's seem to have lost his ability to judge pitches and the strike zone - resulting in his looking mismatched. I am optimistically hopefully that Pronk can contribute in some manner to the success of the team this year, but realistically believe he might be near the end of his rope. I'll make the bold prediction that for the Indians to make the playoffs this season, Hafner will have to hit over 20 home runs. I think less than 10 may be more likely.

Up Next for the Tribe: Wednesday Night 8:05 pm at Texas: Carmona vs. Padilla. Unlike Lee, I believe Carmona may end up being the anchor off the pitching staff this year. I hope he gets it started on Wednesday. Read the rest of this article

Constructing the Indians' Lineup by the Numbers

With Spring Training right around the corner, I know Eric Wedge has a lot on his plate. Does he grow the porn star mustache this year or does he leave that upper lip bare? How does he respond when Slider shoots him a suggestive belly jiggle in the hall? Where will he go to cry when Andy Marte begins clubbing home runs for his new team this season?

To ease Wedgie’s burden, I’ve decided to aide in constructing the perfect Indians’ lineup for the upcoming season. In fact, I’ll construct two different versions – one for when the Indians are facing a right-handed pitcher and one for when they face a lefty. Earlier this week, Biff made reference to the fact that the Indians' lineup reminds him of an empty hot dog bun, lacking the expected "meat" in the middle. And although I’m a vegetarian, I’ll even attempt to address Ol’ Biff’s concerns, devising the most efficient lineup the Indians have seen this side of Moneyball, and answering his query of "where's the beef?" So Wedgie, sit back, relax and read this, I’ll handle all the heavy lifting.

In constructing the perfect lineup, I’m going to focus on several factors. First, on-base percentage or OBP. OBP is figured by taking (H + BB + HBP), divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). The average major league baseball player has an OBP of .340. Why use OBP instead of the standard batting average statistic, you may ask? Well, batting average, though an obvious indication of a batter’s value, fails to tell the complete story. To really simplify matters, assume player X has 10 plate appearances, gets one hit, makes an out 4 times, and walks the remaining 5 appearances. Even though player X is hitting right at the Mendoza line (.200) he has still reached base an amazing 60% of the time or has an OBP of .600. OBP takes into account the ability of a player to reach base in any manner, and therefore reflects the greater chances that an individual player will either a) move another runner ahead or b) be in a position to score, even if he failed to get a hit.

In addition to looking at the OBP statistic, I’m also going to focus on a how a player hits in varying spots in the lineup. My goal is to find a spot in lineup in which each player hits higher than the average .340 OBP. Essentially, I’m going to try to maximize the efficiency of each player, hopefully resulting in the most productive lineup possible for the Tribe. And again, I’m going to try to do this for when the Indians face both a right-handed pitcher or for when they face a lefty. It may sound complicated and number intensive, but I promise it will be easier to follow than it seems. Let’s get started.

First, I'll present to you the lineups I would use on an almost daily basis. Then, I'll explain my seleictions by examining the overall numbers of each player.

THE LINEUPS:

Against a RHP:

1) Grady Sizemore, CF
2) Shin-Soo Choo, RF/LF
3) Travis Hafner, DH
4) Jhonny Peralta, SS
5) Victor Martinez, C
6) Ryan Garko, 1B
7) Ben Francisco, LF/RF
8) Mark DeRosa, 3B
9) Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B

Against a LHP:

1) Grady Sizemore, CF
2) Shin-Soo Choo, RF/LF
3) Ryan Garko, 1B/DH
4) Jhonny Peralta, SS
5) Victor Martinez, 1B/DH/C
6) Kelly Shoppach, C/DH
7) Ben Francisco, LF/RF
8) Mark DeRosa 3B
9) Asdrubal Cabrera 2B

Below, I provide a comprehensive justification for why I put a specific player where I put them in the lineup, focusing mainly on their OBP and their comfort hitting in a certain spot in the order.

Outfielders:

Grady Sizemore: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2141 PA (“Plate Appearances”), .298 AVG, .389 OBP
  
  
• Against LHP: 968 PA, .238 AVG, .328 OBP

Analysis: Unlike every other Indians' hitter, I'm not going to assess Grady's numbers in any other spot than the lead off position because other than a few PA here and there, Grady has been the Indians’ lead off hitter since the 2005 season. In 2810 PA in that span, he has put up impressive numbers, with a .281 average, a .373 OBP, 111 SB, 103 HR (including 18 HR to lead off a game) and 312 RBI. In fact, the only other spot in the lineup that Grady has more than 100 PA is hitting 8th, where he has amassed a dismissal .263 AVG and .288 OBP.

There has been talk about moving Grady out of the lead off spot further down the lineup to take advantage of his power numbers, but the fact remains the Indians really don’t have a viable alternative to hit at the top of the order other than Grady (or possibly Michael Brantley, who I’ll discuss briefly below). Grady has only had 41 PA in the 3rd slot of the lineup, where most people want him hitting if not at the top of the order. Despite the fact that Grady's power numbers may suggest placing him near the middle of the order, necessity dictates that he remains batting first. Plus, Grady has indicated that he likes leading off the game and it since it obviously seems to be working, whom am I to mess with success?

The one downfall Grady has a lead off hitter is the rate at which he strikes out. For his career, he has struck out 604 times in 3109 PA, or about an average of one strikeout per every 5 PA. That’s a pretty high rate for a lead off hitter. And if we really want to nitpick, Grady’s numbers against LHP are rather mediocre. But, given the lack of alternatives and the fact that Grady is the Indians’ most popular player, expect to see him leading almost every game this season regardless of who's on the mound for the opposing team.

Shin-Soo Choo: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 474 PA, .300 BA, .390 OBP, 14 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 116 PA, .257 BA, .322 OBP, 3 HR
  

Hitting 3rd:

• 81 PA, .343 AVG, .420 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 5th in the Lineup (Most Career Plate Appearances):

• 285 PA, .278 AVG, .363 OBP, 6 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 84 PA, .416 AVG, .452 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 51 PA, .220 AVG, .353 OBP

Hitting 8th:

• 75 PA, .180 AVG, .333 OBP

Analysis: Like Grady, Choo hits right-handed pitchers much better than he hits lefties. While his OBP and AVG aren’t terrible playing against lefties, Choo’s numbers are far above the league average when he has the favorable match up against a right-handed pitcher. Choo actually finished near the top of the entire AL last season with an OBP of .397 which indicates that he should probably be playing everyday.

Choo’s lineup numbers show that he would be a productive 3rd, 5th, or 6th hitter. However, because his OBP is so high, placing him second in the lineup makes some sense, despite his lack of experience hitting there. While the numbers seem to say that Choo should hit 6th, with his ability to get on base close to 40% of his plate appearances, I'd prefer to see Victor, Hafner and Peralta hitting behind Choo, rather than Asdrubal or Ben Francisco. Because of that, I think Choo might be an ideal second hitter in the Tribe's newly constructed lineup.

Ben Francisco: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 423 PA, .266 BA, .323 OBP, 13 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 142 PA, .270 BA, .345 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 79 PA, .261 AVG, .354 OBP, 2 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 304 PA, .257 AVG, .322 OBP, 11 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 20 PA, .389 AVG, .421 OBP, 1 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 21 PA, .333 AVG, .429 OBP, 1 HR

Analysis: Francisco has shown a rather consistent ability to hit both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, hitting with a slightly higher than average OBP against LHP. Though the majority of PA Francisco has gotten have been in the 3rd position in the lineup, in limited appearances in the 6th and 7th slots, Francisco has shown the ability to be a productive hitter. Slotting him further down the lineup might help to remove some of the pressure off him as he enters his sophomore season.

David Dellucci: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2827 PA, .266 BA, .350 OBP, 96 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 365 PA, .194 BA, .258 OBP, 5 HR
  

Dellucci has had over 400 PA hitting in the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th spots in the lineup. Since I don’t really want to see Dellucci hitting anywhere for the Tribe, here are the spots where he has put up his best numbers:

Hitting 2nd:

• 492 PA, .302 AVG, .370 OBP, 21 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 543 PA, .268 AVG, .350 OBP, 16 HR

Analysis: Dellucci should NEVER, EVER, EVER play against a left-handed pitcher. Dellucci is the very definition of a platoon player. What's sad is that the Indians have so much money tied up in what amounts to half a player. With the talent of minor league outfielders that the Indians have, it seems apparent that the team would be better served cutting bait with the Looch, as even one mediocre whole player is better than one mediocre half player. However, knowing how the Tribe operates, Dellucci will get his fair share at-bats until it becomes apparent (or well after it becomes apparent) that he cannot get the job done anymore. If, and this is a big if, Wedge ever feels the maddening compulsion to insert Dellucci into the starting lineup, he should hit him 2nd against a right-handed pitcher only. NO EXCEPTIONS.

Michael Brantley: (Bats: left-handed)

And who might be that minor league candidate to take Dellucci's spot on the major league roster? My choice is Michael Brantley. Now, I realize Brantley has never played beyond Double A. But look at the numbers he put up for Class AA Huntsville last year, before being traded to the Indians, .319 AVG, with 80 runs, 17 doubles, two triples, four homers and 40 RBI in 106 games. He also stole 28 bases in 36 attempts and had 50 walks against only 27 strikeouts. What I like best about Brantley however, is his career .399 OBP, which not only would have been best on the Tribe last year, but fourth in the entire American League. And, Baseball America rated Brantley as having the best strike zone judgment and the best base running skills in the Southern League last season.

What makes Brantley so attractive is both his ability to get on base and the he brings some speed to this team (something which it greatly lacks). In fact, Brantley appears to be an almost prototypical lead off hitter. His emergence could potentially allow the Indians to begin to slot Grady further down the lineup. Or, Brantley could be a more than adequate second hitter in the lineup.

Still not convinced? Look at this information from the http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com comparing Brantley to a former Cleveland Indian lead off hitter, near and dear to our hearts:

Brantley's Minor League Career (Age 18-21):

• 383 games, 1392 AB, 53 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 199 BB, 142 K, 104 SB, .311/.399/.372/.771

Kenny Lofton's Minor League Career (Age 21-24):

• 363 games, 1423 AB, 46 2B, 24 3B, 6 HR, 159 BB, 266 K, 168 SB, .300/.370/.379/.749

I’m just saying….

Catchers:

Kelly Shoppach: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 528 PA, .238 BA, .306 OBP, 19 HR
  
  
• Against LHP: 188 PA, .293 BA, .373 OBP, 12 HR
  

Hitting 6th:

• 94 PA, .316 AVG, .426 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 128 PA, .254 AVG, .325 OBP, 5 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 189 PA, .198 AVG, .257 OBP, 6 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 216 PA, .283 AVG, .325 OBP, 9 HR

Analysis: Despite the breakthrough year that Shoppach had last year, his righty/lefty splits indicate a far greater disparity than one might have initially thought. In fact, Shoppach’s power shows itself at a far greater rate against left-handed pitchers, and his OBP is almost 70 points higher hitting against lefties. Shoppach might even be best served hitting solely against left-handed pitchers.

Obviously, our starting pitcher also impacts Shoppach’s appearance in the lineup. There are going to be days when he's catching Cliff Lee and he faces a right-handed pitcher. But, when the matchups allow for it, Shoppach should be on the bench against right-handed opposition. When Shoppach does play, slotting him in the 6th spot appears to be the Indians’ best bet, as his OBP was far over .400 and he averaged a home run per every 10 PA hitting in that spot. Before we hand Shoppach and everyday spot in the lineup, he really needs to improve against righties. Otherwise, if Shoppach gets exposed more this season, the Indians may have missed an opportune time to trade him when his value was at its highest. Especially with the team's surplus of minor league catching talent.

Victor Martinez: (Bats: both)

• Against RHP (as a LH hitter): 1989 PA, .303 BA, .368 OBP, 63 HR

• Against LHP (as a RH hitter): 1019 PA, .289 BA, .373 OBP, 25 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 484 PA, .260 AVG, .347 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 1595 PA, .301 AVG, .369 OBP, 55 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 680 PA, .319 AVG, .388 OBP, 17 HR

Analysis: Without a doubt, Victor is the Indians’ most consistent hitter, while also providing the benefit being a switch hitter. Not only is Victor the Indians’ best hitter, he also is one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. While he exhibits slightly more power hitting left-handed, Victor is the one name, besides Grady’s, who should be penciled in the lineup every single day without a second thought. Though Victor’s numbers indicate that he’d be successful at any place in the lineup, his AVG and OBP indicate that he might put up his best numbers hitting 5th. Again, with the placing players with high OBP before Victor, like Choo and Grady, Victor who has a very high OBP himself, will have runners on base to drive home. As long as Victor is healthy this year, I expect him to return to his All-Star form.

Infielders:

Asdrubal Cabrera: (Bats: both)

• Against RHP (as a LH hitter): 451 PA, .241 BA, .333 OBP, 5 HR

• Against LHP: (as a RH hitter) 150 PA, .346 BA, .403 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 191 PA, .259 AVG, .324 OBP

Hitting 8th:

• 19 PA, .353 AVG, .421 OBP

Hitting 9th:

• 329 PA, .293 AVG, .379 OBP

Analysis: Cabrera is the other switch hitter in the Indians lineup. Unlike Martinez, however, Asdrubal lacks the same constancy from both sides of the plate, hitting over 100 points lower when batting left-handed. Factoring in his defensive abilities, it’s hard to imagine that Cabrera won’t be getting the majority of the starts at SS. However, from a purely offensive prospective, playing him every day might create a giant hole in the lineup when facing a right-handed starter. When Cabrera is in the lineup, it should be near the bottom, hitting in either 8th or 9th. And though the team has tried to pass off Asdrubal as a potential number two hitter, I'd much rather have Choo's high OBP at the second slot, rather than Cabrera's which is substantially lower.

Mark DeRosa: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 2113 PA, .270 BA, .337 OBP, 44 HR

• Against LHP: 867 PA, .302 BA, .373 OBP, 25 HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 400 PA, .281 AVG, .334 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 396 PA, .288 AVG, .357 OBP, 10 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 783 PA, .289 AVG, .371 OBP, 19 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 521 PA, .259 AVG, .342 OBP, 13 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 458 PA, .283 AVG, .340 OBP, 8 HR

Analysis: The Indians' newest offensive weapon provides Wedge with a number of options, in terms of where to hit DeRosa in the lineup. As is apparent above, DeRosa has shown the knack to hit successfully from almost where he's been asserted in the lineup. Though most believe that DeRosa will hit second with the Indians, I believe that the Indians should taken advantage the flexibility that he provides the team, and put him further down in the 8th spot. Not only will having DeRosa hit eighth provide some insurance for those hitting in front of him, it also serves to set the table for Grady and Choo. And, if another batter slumps, DeRosa could then be moved up to provide a spark. Having an individual like DeRosa can take the pressure off a number of other hitters in the lineup, especially if he can deliver a key hit from the eighth spot in the lineup.

Jhonny Peralta: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 2024 PA, .267 BA, .331 OBP, 53 HR

• Against LHP: 787 PA, .271 BA, .345 OBP, 32 HR

Jhonny has hit in a number of spots, and in fact has 200 PA in the 3rd thru 9th spots. His best numbers are in the following spots:

Hitting 3rd:

• 640 PA, .255 AVG, .340 OBP, 22 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 378 PA, .300 AVG, .360 OBP, 12 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 518 PA, .292 AVG, .356 OBP, 14 HR

Analysis: Peralta, like Victor, puts up similar numbers, regardless of whose on the mound. Jhonny really began to flourish last year when he was inserted into the cleanup role on the team, almost by default. Based on the production he showed hitting fourth, I would start the season keeping him in that position. 14 of Jhonny's 23 home runs came last season with no one on base. Moving him into the cleanup spot will allow the team to capitalize on his power by having runners on base when he launches one into the seats. And I can only assume that with his 20/20 vision, they'll be plenty more home runs to come this season.

Jamey Carroll: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 1498 PA, .267 BA, .348 OBP, 6 HR

• Against LHP: 659 PA, .286 BA, .358 OBP, 4 HR

Hitting 1st:

• 575 PA, .264 AVG, .339 OBP, 4HR

Hitting 2nd:

• 995 PA, .264 AVG, .342 OBP, 2HR

Hitting 8th:

• 286 PA, .293 AVG, .375 OBP, 1 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 142 PA, .325 AVG, .407 OBP, 2 HR

Analysis: Carroll puts up decent numbers against both righties and lefties, and because of that, he should be used to spell Cabrera when the Indians are facing a right-handed pitcher. As a utility player, Carroll provides an above average OBP, which is good considering he provides almost no power. When he does fill in for a regular, Jamey should hit out of the ninth spot in the lineup. And if Cabrera once again slumps this season, Carroll can be an adequate, but hopefully temporary, replacement.

Ryan Garko: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 962 PA, .271 BA, .339 OBP, 30 HR

• Against LHP: 352 PA, .315 BA, .392 OBP, 12 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 327 PA, .280 AVG, .358 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 327 PA, .251 AVG, .327 OBP, 13 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 147 PA, .297 AVG, .359 OBP, 10 HR

Hitting 7th:

• 115 PA, .300 AVG, .374 OBP, 4 HR

Analysis: Given Garko's up and down season last year, I was surprised to see that his numbers, while better left-handed pitching, were surprisingly decent. In fact, had I seen just the numbers, I would have probably switched Garko's and Shoppach's numbers, just based on the results of last season. And even despite the inconsistent season Garko had put forth last year, he still drove in 90 runs.

The Garko/Hafner/Shoppach/Martinez collection for three positions (1B, DH, and C) is going to require some creative balancing from Wedge. Especially, since both Garko and Shoppach hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching. When we look at Hafner's numbers in a minute, we'll see that he's actually better facing right-handed pitching. The Indians might be best served batting Garko near the middle of the order against lefties, and then using him to fill in every once and awhile against righties, assuming Hafner is at full strength. If not, Garko becomes an everyday player.

Travis Hafner: (Bats: left-handed)

• Against RHP: 2004 PA, .290 BA, .395 OBP, 111 HR

• Against LHP: 1003 PA, .267 BA, .382 OBP, 36 HR

Hitting 3rd:

• 1165 PA, .273 AVG, .392 OBP, 55 HR

Hitting 4th:

• 918 PA, .294 AVG, .405 OBP, 54 HR

Hitting 5th:

• 392 PA, .283 AVG, .385 OBP, 11 HR

Hitting 6th:

• 287 PA, .313 AVG, .392 OBP, 17 HR

Analysis: Hafner remains the great question mark of 2009. Can we assume that a fully healthy Hafner will provide anywhere close to the numbers we saw him put up in his prime? Probably not, at least in terms of power numbers. Something more worrisome to me than Hafner's lack of power was the fact that he seemed to lose his ability to judge the strike zone. Even in 2007, when Hafner's power numbers decreased (only 24 HR), he still had an OBP of .385. Last year, that number dropped to .305. In 2007, Hafner drew 102 walks in 661 PA, or one walk per every 6.5 PA. Last year, 27 walks in 198 PA or one walk per every 10 PA.

I'm hoping Hafner was pressing and trying to overcompensate for his injury by swinging at pitches he normally would have laid off of. I'm sure as he began to feel the pressure, Pronk wanted to crush any possible pitch to show that he was still healthy. After spending an extended period recuperating, it will be Hafner's walk totals, not his power totals, which indicate if he's back to "normal."

Balancing out the impressive OBP that Hafner has shown in the past, while the sudden decline last year and his injury, initially, I might play Hafner solely against right-handed pitchers. Especially because the majority of Hafner's power comes against righties. If Hafner shows he's healthy, moving him back into an everyday role as a DH may be warranted. Again, his role will be shaped in part by how Garko, Shoppach and Martinez are hitting.


Andy Marte: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 399 PA, .195 BA, .239 OBP, 6 HR

• Against LHP: 162 PA, .252 BA, .329 OBP, 3 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 163 PA, .227 AVG, .266 OBP, 0 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 266 PA, .205 AVG, .265 OBP, 6 HR

Analysis: For the sake of comprehensiveness, I'll examine Marte's numbers even though I don't believe that he'll make the team without a monster spring training. Marte has shown no offensive ability in the majors to date, and unfortunately I don't see him breaking the trend in an Indians' uniform. Even the memory of Brandon Phillips doesn't warrant keeping him around unless he shows some life this spring.

Josh Barfield: (Bats: right-handed)

• Against RHP: 788 PA, .259 BA, .288 OBP, 7 HR

• Against LHP: 267 PA, .268 BA, .308 OBP, 9 HR

Hitting 8th:

• 552 PA, .277 AVG, .309 OBP, 8 HR

Hitting 9th:

• 552 PA, .233 AVG, .258 OBP, 2 HR

Analysis: I was a big Josh Barfield supporter ... until I looked at the numbers. Barfield does not walk. Ever. His OBP is lower than most major leaguers batting average. Barfield has only drawn
44 BB in 1055 PA or about 4 walks out of every 100 PA. Until Barfield can consistently get on base, he's value to the Indians is extremely limited. And with an option remaining, a poor spring may actually keep Marte on the roster.

Luis Valbuena: (Bats: left-handed)

Given the poor choice between Marte and Barfield for the final infield bench spot, Valbuena, acquired in the F-Gut trade, might be find his way onto the major league roster by the end of spring training. His numbers in his minor career include a. 270 BA and a .346 OBP. Given the choice between Valbuena, Marte, and Barfield, the Indians may want to explore bringing in a cheap veteran for the last infield bench spot, if one can be had at a reasonable price. Perhaps a Ray Durham or Mark Grudzielanek, both of who are still available.

Final Thoughts:

Given the number crunching I did above, the lineups I have constructed serve to maximize the OBP numbers and AVG of the team, given the prior history of all the players. While by no means ideal, making minor adjustments like moving Choo up in the order and benching Shoppach against right-handed pitchers will help to make this Indians' team even more productive than last season's squad. While Biff complains that this team lacks the "meat," I believe this team has the ability to play successful station to station baseball, consistently putting runners on the base paths and creating scoring opportunities. I encourage you, Eric Wedge, to consider using both my lineups and to maybe grow out a fu manchu for the upcoming season. (Photos courtesy of Lori Griffin and are subject to copyright.) Read the rest of this article