Sunday, May 31, 2009

The Death of the 2009 Cavaliers and Hope for the Future

I'm supposed to be beside myself right now. How does a veteran 66 win team with an indestructible player just go catatonic in the Eastern Conference Finals and lay down to a gimmicky team from a crappy sports town like Orlando. This wasn't supposed to happen. We were supposed to at least have the opportunity to give the Lakers our best shot. This team had been different all year. They played together, they outhustled people, they never panicked, they cheered for each other from the bench . . . where did all of that go?
Given the ride that we've all been on with this team for the last 8 or so months, it's hard to rationalize what just happened. Based on the comments I've seen and heard so far, the most common reaction that people seem to be having having is a desire to label this collapse as another classic Cleveland choke. They're pointing fingers at Lebron, Mike Brown, Mo Williams . . . pretty much anyone who could possibly be made to take the fall for this heartbreak. In a way, people seem to want to pull the covers of their heads, curl up in a ball, and wallow in the familiar and strangely comforting misery that is Cleveland fandom.

Listen, I'm as hurt as anyone right now. The greatest season since the 95 Indians just ended with a thud. We basically have nothing to look forward to as fans for another 12 months or so when the Cavs will possibly have a chance to avenge this loss. All we can do now is mope around and stare out into Cleveland sports abyss. For a lot of people, myself included, who depend on our teams to be a source of entertainment and happiness, the situation that we are presently facing is daunting to say the least.

With that in mind, if you just can't stomach any Cavs analysis right now, I encourage you to stop reading. What I am about to say might piss some people off but after a great deal of thought, I'm comfortable that it's an accurate statement: THE CAVS DID NOT CHOKE. The Cavs were a fatally flawed group that came up short against a team that was playing exceptionally good basketball and beat them straight up in six games. That's what happened. Yes, the Cavs blew some close games. Yes, the officiating was atrocious, but equally so on both sides. Yes, certain players (I'm looking at you Mo) played poorly throughout the series. Yes, Orlando had some guys play way above their heads. Still, if you consider the Cavs' full body of work this year, I don't think you can call what they just did a choke job.

Against both Orlando and the Lakers this year, teams that can play both inside and out, the Cavs were pretty helpless. Their ancient frontcourt combined with an undersized backcourt made it impossible to match up. It's not like the Cavs weren't aware of this throughout the season either. It's exactly why they were considering taking on Shaq's ungodly contract at the deadline. In the end, they decided to roll the dice and play with what they had. I don't want to come off like I'm second guessing that decision. At the time it was made, given the players available and the financial ramifications involved, it was perfectly defensible. At the same time, there is a chance that it just cost the Cavs the title.

I know that the Cavs won 66 games. I know that they swept the first two rounds of the playoffs. I know about the MVP, coach of the year, second all-star on the roster . . . I know. It doesn't change the fact that the Cavs had an elephant in the room all year that we all just collectively decided that there was nothing we could do about so we just left it alone in the hope that it wouldn't be our undoing. Well, it was. And even if we'd survived Orlando, it probably would've been our undoing against L.A. You can't go 6'1 and 6'2 in the backcourt if you only have one viable frontcourt defender. Lebron can make a lot of deficiencies disappear but against a team like Orlando, even he can't overcome the problem. It was just physically impossible to match up. If you double Howard, they'll shoot right over top of your small guards. If you don't double Howard, he'll just eat you alive. Solve that one for me.  What exactly were the Cavs supposed to do? Orlando made the shots that the Cavs had to give them. It's as simple as that.

I don't want to dwell on this. It's going to take some time but eventually, we're going to have to just let it be and look ahead. It's hard to think about it now but the Cavs are in really good position to address their deficiencies this offseason. Between re-signing Varejao and getting rid of Szczerbiak, they won't free up all that much money (they're over the cap anyway but I'm sure they'd prefer to lower the payroll a bit) but they will still have Ben Wallace as a major trading chip (If he's going to retire, they could trade him and let another team buy him out) in an environment where plenty of teams will be looking to shed payroll. I think if the Cavs can add one of the following three things this summer, they will be the prohibitive favorite to win it next year:

1. Lengthy wing defender: Hopefully a two-way player but if not, maybe someone like Dahntay Jones. Basically I'm looking for a non-retarted Sasha Pavolvic.

2. Big body down low: See Perkins, Kendrick. We need one of those.  They're hard to find.  This could be a problem.  

3. Second fiddle: Sorry Mo but you came up small when it mattered most. You're a nice complementary player but everyone out there that told us all year that you weren't the real Robin was right. If he's out there, the Cavs need to use Ben Wallace's contract to acquire another reliable scorer.  Oddly enough, given the current economic climate of the NBA, it will probably be easier to add this piece that to find a reliable low-post defender.

That's all I've got for now. Keep your heads up everyone. I hear the Browns are going to be really good this year.
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Thursday, May 21, 2009

It happened, We're Over It, We're Moving On

Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts. The sky is not falling . . . .

I attended game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals last night expecting to be treated to another 48 minutes of Cavalier poetry. Needless to say, 24 of those minutes fell a bit short of my expectations. I left the Q hoarse, angry, and exhausted.

I'm not going to recap the game. I'm not going to point out all of the obvious and ridiculous things that the Cavs botched, both in their execution and strategy in the second half. All I'm going to do is offer a few suggestions that I think might help the Cavs handle a team that they just don't match up with particularly well; and yes, I'm well aware that "don't stand around on offense" is probably near the top of the list of adjustments that need to be made, but we're going for a few things that are a little more subtle:

1. Take 75% of Szczerbiak and Gibson's minutes and give them to Sasha. Keep in mind, I am not a Pavlovic fan. But I just don't see how you can justify playing a guy a) whose feet are glued to the floor, or b) who is undersized and brings nothing to the table right now, over a guy who is 6'7, agile, and can also put the ball on the floor on the offensive end. Listen, I'm well aware of Sasha's deficiencies. I just think that with both Lewis and Turkoglu out on the floor, when the Cavs decide to change things up by going to the bench, the should do it by bringing out a big perimeter player who can bother Orlando's shooters a little bit.

2. Increase Lebron's minutes. I know, this sounds a little bit ridiculous since he only sat about 90 seconds in the 4th quarter but part of what has made the Cavs such a tough playoff out for the last couple of years is that the team becomes significantly better when Lebron is playing 48 minutes. I thought it was a costly mistake to put him on the bench to start the 4th last night. Playoff leads are too hard to build. It is senseless to have a guy work all game to build and maintain a lead just to let it slip away so that he can get a quick blow. There are no back-to-backs in the playoffs. The TV timeouts are endless. Lebron can go 48 minutes without a problem. Let him do it. At the very least, eliminate the rest at the start of the 4th. The Cavs can't afford to take him off of the floor for defensive reasons, let alone offense.

3. Give Andy a crack at Howard. I completely agreed with the strategy of forcing Howard to beat single defenders to win the game. Boiled down to its simplest form, in a pure pissing contest between Howard and Lebron, Howard loses 99 times out of 100. He just doesn't have the offensive arsenal to score every time down the floor like Lebron does. That said, having Z guard him all game is making things a little too easy. At least Andy might be able to stay in front of him and draw a cheap charge or two. I'm not saying the Cavs should do it all game because they can't afford to have Varejeo in foul trouble but he definitely needs to spend a little more time on Howard, if only to force him to make a few more baby hooks. Obviously, if the Cavs do this, it means more time for Wallace and Joe Smith because one of them is going to have to guard Rashard Lewis. I'm fine with that (assuming they stop screwing up the switch-offs on the sideline pick and roll). I love Z but unless the Cavs are going to run offensive set through him in the low post (which they won't as long as Howard is down there), then there isn't much reason to have him out there all game.

4. Stick Lebron on Alston and leave him there until somebody else gets hot. I'm not sure why the Cavs switched the assignment last night when Orlando's perimeter players were quiet in the first half. Plus, having Lebron on Alston gives him a little more flexibility to be a helpside defender down low. I'm not saying he can just go roam and block shots, but it's not like Turkoglu or Lewis where helping equals instant death.

5. Stop making Z show on screens 30 feet from the basket.

6. Push the perimeter defense out even further out. I know, it sounds absurd but Orlando can't win games with 2 point shots. On that last possession, I wished Varejao had just waved Rashard Lewis by him and made him make an uncontested 8 footer. I know, putting guys in a position to beat you off the dribble forces defenders to help and causes things to break down. Still, I'd rather take my chances with that than allow Lewis and Turkoglue to get good looks at the rim all game. The Cavs defenders need to be up in Lewis and Turkoglu's chests swatting at the ball trying to make their lives difficult and disrupt their shooting motions.

Aside from the aforementioned, there are a host of other obvious adjustments that need to be made (e.g. Mike Brown not doing his best S.V.G. impression by pissing his pants and overreacting to his opponent's play by abandoning his gameplan) but I have confidence that the Cavs will make them. The Cavs are a 66 win team. The Magic are a team that is built to succeed one night and fail the next. The sky is not falling. The Cavs have spent 8 months convincing us that they're the best team in the league. One bad half doesn't change that. Keep the faith everyone. This series is going to be a roller-coaster but I still believe the Cavs will prevail.
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Monday, May 18, 2009

A Guide to the Josh Cribbs Contract Saga

Time to take on the Josh Cribbs contract situation through some Q&A:

Another selfish athlete who just can't seem to live on a million bucks a year. Don't we deserve to be outraged?!

Well, you can be outraged if you'd like but don't be mad at Cribbs. Think about this: He may make $1 million a year but he's an NFL kick and punt returner who also serves as a special-teams gunner on the kick coverage teams. Basically, aside from kamikaze pilot, he's got about the most dangerous and physically destructive job you can think of. He'll turn 26 next month which means he has maybe three or four more good years left in him. Basically, the money he makes over the next few years is going to have to last him for about the next 50. Yes, I understand he has a Kent State degree but without sounding too . . . I don't know, condescending, I have my doubts about Cribbs' ability to add substantially to his fortune in any post-football business endeavors (unless of course one of the major networks decides to syndicate "Josh's Cribbs," which is highly likely). So, while you may bitch about your 40k a year, remember that you can probably continue to earn that for the rest of your life. Cribbs, on the other hand, has to make bank now or deal with the very real possibility that the money is going to run out some day. $1 million a year is a lot of money but when you can only make it for a few years and then you have to live on it and support your family on it for decades, it isn't quite as much as it seems.

But Cribbs willfully signed his contract! Nobody forced him to sign for six years!

A fair point, and in any other sport, that would be the end of the argument. In football, however, it isn't quite that simple. For the most part, football deals are what the law calls "illusory" contracts. They contain virtually no mutuality of obligation. Most NFL players, aside from the select few that get gobs in signing bonuses and guaranteed money, are at-will employees. The franchises, on the other hand, can control players' rights for years without really promising anything other than a set salary contingent upon the individual team's desire to have the particular player on the roster for that year. It's a very one-sided way of negotiating which is why you don't see it in the other major sports.

So then we should feel bad for Cribbs for being forced to sign this contract of adhesion?

Nope. NFL players have nobody to blame but themselves for being stuck in situations like this. If they don't like the way the current system works, then they need to get a better union. Everything that happens to a player like Cribbs is a product of the collective bargaining efforts of the NFL Players Union. Unfortunately for Cribbs and many others like him, the NFLPA is by far the worst union of any of the three major professional sports. That's why even though football players subject themselves to the most occupational danger, they're the only ones without guaranteed contracts. It's also why rookies make 100x more than valuable veterans and aging players don't have adequate health coverage or decent pensions. For years, the Union was run by guys like Gene Upshaw, who cared more about backroom handshake agreements with player-agents than about protecting the interests of the players who really make the game special. If NFL players don't like their current predicament . . . if they're tired of a system that pays Matthew Stafford about $41 million more in guaranteed money than a pro-bowl player like Josh Cribbs, then they need to get off of their asses and elect better Union leadership.

Ok, I get it: The NFLPA is horrible. But with that aside, didn't Randy Lerner promise Cribbs more money?

Who knows, but it certainly sounds like a very convenient thing to say when you're trying to get gain the public's support to put pressure on the owner. Randy Lerner throws around millions of dollar on free agents every year without even batting an eye. He knows he's already on thin ice with the fans and media in Cleveland so do you really think that now of all times, he would decide to renege on a promise to one of his best and most liked players for the sake of saving a little cash? It's not out of the question but I highly doubt it. And I also doubt that Mangini and Kokinis showed up and told Lerner not to pay the man. Again, it's not out of the question but it certainly sounds farfetched.

So what should the Browns do to resolve the situation?

Well, there are two competing forces that deserve consideration here. Force 1 - Leverage: Simply put, the Browns have all of it. As stated, the clock is ticking on Cribbs as a valuable NFL player. Once his speed goes or his body starts to break down, it's over. He can't afford to sit on the sideline all year and miss 16 game checks. What's more, unlike a player on the cusp of free agency, he can't just hold out for 10 games and then play the last six to get credit for the year. Basically, he's stuck. The Browns hold all of the cards. Now, I know some of you are probably thinking, "Well sure, the Browns can turn this into a standoff but then they'll risk being without one of their best and most popular players." I understand this argument, but unfortunately, it doesn't really matter. The Browns are going to be bad with Cribbs or worse without him. What exactly are they risking by having him hold out? Going 5-11 as opposed to 6-10? It's not exactly like we're gearing up for a Super Bowl run this year. As for Cribbs' popularity with the fan base, if you haven't figured it out by now, Randy Lerner could go around taking dumps on the front stoops of the homes of every single Browns fan and it wouldn't deter them from spending money to support the team. Demand for the Browns, as insane as it seems, is completely inelastic. They'll sell tickets and merchandise with or without Cribbs.

Force 2 - Goodwill: NFL teams don't usually get very far by alienating their own players. As an organization, you have to strike a delicate balance between holding players to the letters of their contracts and taking care of your own. Cribbs' market value is certainly more than what he's getting paid and god knows the Browns waste tens of millions of dollars every year on carpetbagging manslaughterers like Donte' Stallworth. Would it really kill them to take care of Cribbs? No, it wouldn't. It would make Cribbs happy, it would make the fans happy, it would improve the team's image, and it would preserve the peace within the organization.

I'll ask again: What should the Browns do to resolve the situation?

Well when you weigh the two aforementioned forces against each other, I think the answer becomes that the Browns should seek a middle ground with Cribbs. He's going to show up and ask for Devin Hester money at the very least: 4 years, $40 million, $15 million guaranteed. The Browns, rightfully, should laugh at the demand given that they have ALL of the bargaining power. At the same time, an olive branch in the neighborhood of a couple million dollars a year in extra base compensation would probably be appropriate. Cribbs and his agent may put on a tough face and continue to hold out, but in the end, he has no choice but to accept the offer. He can either have a year in the prime of his career where he makes $0 or he can show up for work and make 2 or 3 times what he initially thought he would be earning. He wouldn't be completely satisfied, but at the very least, he could return to the team without completely losing face. In the end, I think this is probably the best solution for all parties involved.

So now that we know what the Browns should do, what do you think they will do?

Based on the front office's response today, it seems like they're going to go the route of publicly calling Cribbs a liar, refusing to negotiate with him, and making the organization look completely foolish yet again. They wouldn't be the Browns if they didn't turn ever morsal of discontent into a full blown public relations debacle. Hopefully, they'll come to their senses and reach a compromise with Cribbs, but for some reason, and by some reason I mean everything I've come to know about the Browns, I just don't see them resolving this one peacefully.
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Sunday, May 17, 2009

It's Orlando: The Road to the Finals Just Got Harder

And so ends the reign of the Celtics . . .

I can't help but feel a little disappointed. There were so many reasons to want the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals: The inflated media hype they generate, the cliche' "team of destiny" storylines that would've inevitably developed, the fact that they're completely finished and would've probably been pounded by the Cavs in 5 games, the revenge factor associated with embarrassing an aging and decimated Celtics team . . . It would've been a lot of fun.

With that said, I guess I can appreciate the silver lining in the Celtics' defeat: This was absolutely the end for them. Garnett may come back but he's never going to be the defensive enforcer that he used to be. Paul Pierce has crested the hill and is rapidly crashing back toward earth. Did you see him trying to take guys off the dribble in these playoffs? He looked like he was running in sand the entire time. Ray Allen? Entering the Reggie Miller "I can only contribute on a great team that can create wide open looks for me" phase of his career. The Celtics are done . . . for a while. Of course, when their cap situation improves, they are bound to land a marquee free agent or two. Players are always going to want to play in Boston. It's a decent town that gets a ton of media attention and the Celtics have a fantastic basketball tradition. But before the Celtics rebuild, they're going to have to pay the bill for the Championship they (along with Kevin McHale) won last year.
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Another silver lining from the Celtics' failure: With Garnett going down, Glen Davis got to show just enough for someone (hopefully the Celtics) to wildly overpay for him this Summer. As a Cavs fan, you have to appreciate that. Sure, we may have our own bill coming due with Varejao but at least he's a legit 6'11 and can play center when called upon. The Celtics are genuinely screwed. Seriously, they're probably a 50-55 win team next year. It's our time now.

Bring On Orlando:

Before I can start breaking down the Magic as a team, I have to address a major subplot to this upcoming series that the networks are sure to miss. You may not have known this but Magic Center Dwight Howard has a real thing for porn stars; and not just any porn stars. He likes porn stars that poop in hot tubs. The sight of a floater cruising along in a steaming whirlpool really turns him on. Don't believe me? Follow the link below:

http://yourhollywoodnews.com/?p=7919

Some highlights:

-Howard invited his porn star friend to a Magic game but insulted her by giving her crappy tickets.
-The object of Howard's affection seems to enjoy defecating and menstruating in hot tubs.
-Howard cornered Ms. Carey in a bathroom and whipped it out.
-Howard is a devout Christian.

You stay classy Superman.

Ok, so I've been waiting to post that for about, oh, I don't know, two years. Now that I've gotten it out of my system, lets talk basketball. Just for fun, we'll break down this matchup Terry Pluto style:

Can the Magic beat the Cavs?

Yes. Orlando is extremely dangerous but very little of that has to do with Dwight Howard. Howard may be able to protect the rim and hammer the glass but there's only so much damage he can do by himself. Rather, it's Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu that really present the problem for the Cavs. Both are 6'10 and can be extremely dangerous from the outside. If one or both of them get hot, there won't be a ton that the Cavs can do about it. When you're giving up that much size on the perimeter, closing out on a shooter will only protect you to a certain degree. The Cavs' defense thrives on packing the paint and making teams beat them with jump shots. Orlando is one of the few teams in the league that can actually win that way (hence the reason they were able to beat the Cavs twice by double-digits this year).

Can the Cavs pound Orlando like they did Detroit and Atlanta?

Yes. Here's the thing about Orlando: They may punch harder than Boston, and they may present a greater danger of knocking us down (aka, winning at the Q) but they don't have Boston's jaw. If we hit them hard in the mouth early in the series, they might just hit the canvas for good. This is a team that is a) inexperienced, b) built around the 3-point shot, and c) coached by a guy who is prone to freaking out in big moments. If the Cavs had taken games one and two at the Q against Boston, the Celtics would've come back and fought hard at home. However, if the Cavs really take it to Orlando Wednesday and Friday, the series might be over early. Orlando may have more talent than Boston but they don't have the Celtics' leadership, experience, or intestinal fortitude.

So what's the game plan?

Well, I'm sure with as much time as they've had off, Mike Brown and his staff know exactly how they're going to handle the Magic. If it were me, I'd make it my number one priority to contest EVERYTHING from the outside and take my chances with Howard. If nothing else, the Cavs have enough big men in Z, Varejao, Wallace, and Smith that they can just foul the shit out of him and make him beat them from the line. I'll take my chances with Howard shooting lots of jump hooks and free throws.

The Magic will win if:

They have an absolute lights out shooting night in either games 1 or 2 and steal one from a stunned Cavs team at the Q. Then, they go back home, take advantage of their crowd, and beat a still somewhat bewildered Cavs team twice more to go up 3-1. Then, they come back to Orlando for game 6 and finish it.

The Cavs will win if:

They can keep Orlando from penetrating. It sounds counter intuitive to worry about penetration when you're talking about a team with a dominant center and a bunch of 3-point shooters but realistically, it would be tough for the Cavs to lose 4 times unless they're getting beat off of the dribble. Howard might be good for one Orlando win on his own. Turkoglu and Lewis could win two more with hot shooting nights. Still, I don't see Orlando getting to 4 unless Alston and the other perimeter guys can break down the Cavs' defense allowing Howard to dominate the glass and get easy second-chance points. If the Cavs can stay in front of their men, I like them to win the series.

The good news for Orlando is:

The Cavs might have to rely heavily on Sasha Pavlovic in this series. Aside from Lebron, he's the only guy with both the size and quickness to bother Orlando's big shooters.

The good news for Cleveland is:

Lebron might just assassinate Orlando by himself. This isn't the same player we've seen in years past. He is now good enough not only to win games by himself, but to win entire series by himself. Then again, even if he doesn't, the great thing about having the home court is that you can count on your complimentary players to show up for at least 4 games in the series.

More good news for Cleveland:

Orlando's point guard is Rafter Alston. He is, uh . . . let's just say unreliable.

Prediction:

If you're betting against the Cavs at this point then you're insane. Orlando is capable of giving the Cavs a very tough series, and even capable of beating them if everything breaks just right for them. Still, if you're playing the odds, the Cavs have to be a pretty good favorite in this series. I'd say with the homecourt and the extended rest, they could probably beat Orlando in 7 series out of 10. That's why for my prediction, I'm going with Cavs in 6.

Wednesday can't arrive soon enough.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Power Rankings: Make Way For Intangibles

As the Cavs continue their throat slitting tour through the Eastern Conference and the Indians continue to "fade into Bolivian," it seems like an appropriate time to reshuffle the Power Rankings a bit. My first inclination, and one that has been supported by a few members of the CMRC faithful, is to automatically ban all Indians from this list for trying to ruin summer in Cleveland.

As much as I would've liked to act on this impulse out of spite and pettiness, in all fairness, I couldn't do it. Is Sizemore off to a pathetic start hitting .227? Yes. But the power rankings are supposed to be a reflection of the comprehensive feelings that fans have on a daily basis about the players in this city. Cleveland fans might be upset with Grady right now because he strikes out every time he comes to bat, but they still love him, they still haven't forgotten how good he can be, and he's still the second most famous athlete in Cleveland. Similarly, Victor Martinez may be on the verge of irrelevance (at least until we hear his name start popping up in trade rumors), but he's still beloved in this town and he's still hitting at an absurd .374 clip. The fact that he was moved down in the power rankings is more a reflection of the fact that fans will begin to forget about him with the Indians being so terrible, because unlike Sizemore (and rather inexplicably since Victor has twice the personality that Grady has), he doesn't have the star power to keep himself in the Cleveland conscience with the team out of it.

In addition, I had to move Varejao up right now. He's beloved, he's playing insanely good basketball, and this team is starting to build a lasting legacy for itself in this town. The same is true for Delonte who, after months of not being the same guy he was at the beginning of the season, finally appears to be back at full strength. He's playing inspired defense, picking up the scoring load when needed, and endearing himself to the Cavalier faithful. He deserves a spot in these rankings.

Falling off the list is Shaun Rogers, not because of anything he did, but because with Browns fans resigned to the fact that the Browns are going to be bad again this year, nobody is going to give a damn about the veteran players. All of the focus will be on Quinn and our sexy high-octane young rookies like Brian Robiskie and Alex Mack (shaking head).

Just missing this list: Dave Dellucci, Rafael Perez, Lorenzen Wright

That's it for now. GO CELTICS! (and if you don't get why I'm saying that, you don't know the NBA)
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Sunday, May 10, 2009

LeBron's March to the Sea


I haven't written about the Cavaliers in a while because truthfully, I haven't felt like it. Now I know what you're thinking: I only chime in when I have something to complain about, but please, allow me to explain . . . .
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When I watch the Cavs right now, I don't have to think. I don't have to worry. I don't have to do anything. Right now, being a Cavs fan is the most relaxing and enjoyable experience that you could possibly imagine. I watch the way they play the game, and my body experiences this indescribable euphoria, the likes of which I have never approached through any other (legal) activity.

Generally, I get motivated to write about one of my teams when they're doing something that requires some sort of analysis. What exactly do you want me to analyze about the Cavs right now? They're playing at a level that only a handful of teams in NBA history have ever played at. They do everything right. They never take games off. They never shit the bed. They just go out there every game and please me. That's what they do. Why ruin that by trying to engage in some long-winded analysis. For the first time since maybe the '95 Indians, one of my teams requires no explanation or commentary. As a fan, I can only sit back and enjoy them. In a way, they're like a beautiful sunset. If I try to deconstruct their beauty instead of just enjoying the moment, I'll ruin the experience. I would encourage every blogger to take this approach with the Cavs right now. Don't tell me how they're doing what they're doing. Just let me sit back, relax my brain, and enjoy the breathtaking show that they put on every time they take to the floor.

Given the feelings I've just expressed, I'm not going to offer much in the way of Cavs analysis. All I will say is that right now, Lebron is doing more damage to Atlanta than any man since Sherman. I mean he could literally beat the Hawks with four NBADL stiffs around him right now. He's playing at a level that's higher than anyone since maybe '96 Jordan and even Jordan couldn't hold a candle to the type of efficiency numbers that Lebron is generating right now. I've been watching him for six years and I'm just flat out in awe. He does whatever he needs to do whenever he feels the need to do it. The floor is his. Everyone else, especially the opposing team, is just there for decoration.

It won't always be this easy. Certainly, there are a few teams out there that could challenge our juggernaut. But right now, I don't want to think about them. I just want soak up all the love and positive energy that the Cavs are sending in my direction. For once in my life, I want to enjoy the fact that I don't have to work to be a fan.
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Friday, May 1, 2009

Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Tribe In Desperate Need of 'Relief'

I'm pissed off. I should be basking in the glow of the Cleveland Cavaliers as they march towards their inevitable championship destiny. I should be drinking my annual Browns' delusional punch, convincing myself the team has any semblance of finishing above .500. I should be admiring Terrelle Pyror's new tattoo.

Instead, evening after painful, predictable evening, I am forced to endure the pathetic excuse for a team, currently masquerading as the Cleveland Indians.

In the past, this site has been accused of taking a somewhat cynical and critical view towards our Cleveland sports franchises. However, I refuse to be further subjected to and to blindly cheer for a Cleveland Indians team which is both boring to watch and mind-numbingly frustrating to follow. A wildly inconsistent offense, coupled with a gasoline and matchbox carrying bullpen, and a team devoid of leadership, has lead me down the fandom path of anger, despair and that oh to familiar Cleveland feeling of apathy (really a disguised mixture of anger and despair).

For the past few seasons, the Indians have been the media's sexy preseason sleeper pick, the team which all the pundits love to purchase a season upon the bandwagon. What these pundits fail to perceive, is that Tribe as currently constructed, is an inherently flawed baseball team. A bandwagon with three broken wheels and no horses isn't going anywhere.

1. The Bullpen

The hands-down, biggest culprit for the Indians' failures thus far this season is the bullpen. Look, no one expected the bullpen to be this bad. In fact, coming into the season, the bullpen appeared one of the strengths of the roster. Picking up Joe Smith and Kerry Wood only seemed to cement a relief corps which finished last season strongly. Instead, the team has the league's worse bullpen - a group who seemingly cannot retire a batter between them.

How many of you out there, when watching Indians' games feel that any lead is safe? Not me. I don't care if the Tribe is up 7 runs in the 9th inning with two outs, as this point in the season I have absolutely zero confidence in any of our relievers.

The Indians relievers with the lowest ERAs currently are Tony Sipp (3.60 - who gave up 2 runs in a .1 inning of work in his last appearance) and Aaron Laffey (3.60). The fact that the Indians had to move their most consistent starter to stabilize the bullpen indicates just how bad things have gotten. Not to mention that the supposed reliable members of our pen, Wood, Jensen Lewis and the Raffies have been giving up runs at an alarming clip (like every single game). Jensen Lewis especially has been serving up home runs like a pedophile handing out candy to tricker-treaters.

Perhaps the bullpen's struggles can be attributed to the off-season dismissal of Luis Issac. Perhaps moving Laffey to the pen, demoting Raffy Perez, calling up Matt Herges to replace Vinnie Chulk, and the potential pick up of Luis Vizcaino will turn things around. All I know is that's hard to win ballgames when you can't protect leads. And, as a starting pitcher, it has to be demoralizing to leave with a sizable lead, only to see the pen crap away the game. I'd rather the Indians get blown out of a game, rather than see the team continually give games away in the latter innings.

2. The Tribe has No Personality/ No Leadership

A second problem I have with this team is that has absolutely zero personality. Watching the Indians play this season, it's clear that they are one of the most vanilla teams in baseball - the team identity falling somewhere between Ben Stein's portrayal as Ferris Bueller's teacher and a pet rock. Gone are those carefree yesteryear days of pies in the face, ala Trot Nixon. In their stead, we find a team without an identifiable captain or even a viable mouthpiece.

The problem seemingly starts at the top with Eric Wedge. I've always been on the fence with Wedge as a manager of this team, which in of itself is a characterization of the overall identity problem with the team. Wedge has always been so bland in spouting off trite baseball sound bites after games, that it's nearly impossible to form an opinion of his either positively or negatively because he's so robotic. His players seem to respect him, if only because he protects from the media and his usual refusal to say anything negative about them.

On the other hand, Wedge spends most games staring off into the distance, with a look of utter disinterest and disdain plastered across his face. It's only been recently, with the Tribe's season circling the drain, along with Wedge's future employment, that we've begun to see any life and fight emerge from him. In fact, one of my favorite moments so far this season was when Wedge finally showed some emotion arguing that swinging strike and that foul ball in the Red Sox game, getting himself tossed. The Indians were so moved by their manager's unusual display of emotion that they rallied themselves into another losing effort.

While I'm not a huge Ozzie Guillen fan, I can't help but think that an underachieving team like the Indians might be better served by having a fiery manager like Ozzie at its helm. I'm thinking along the lines of perhaps a Tony Pena - he has managing experience and he's even smacked one of relief pitchers in the head with a glove before.

But despite Wedge's unwavering demeanor for the most part, no player has stepped up into the leadership role on the field - gaps left by the departures of Casey Blake and C.C. Sabathia. Usually, a team's most talented players will find themselves in the leadership role, if only because their abilities on the field seemingly earn them the respect of their peers. On the Indians, two players who would appear to be in leadership type positions are Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. And honestly, neither of them strikes me as a vocal leader of this group.

Sizemore especially would seem to possess all the qualities necessary to be a dynamic clubhouse voice for the Tribe - -he plays the game hard, he seems to enjoy himself and his teammates seem to respect him. Unfortunately, he seems to have no interest in filling that role. It's typically unusual for a younger player to be the mouthpiece of a team. Having someone like Lebron James in our backyards (who is such an impressive team general) can blind us to the fact that it's typically the older veterans who set the tone for how a team approaches the game or responds from hardships. Grady just doesn't seem to have the type of personality who is going to rally teammates in the dugout or pat someone on the back after a hard game. Maybe as he matures, Grady will fall into to such a role, but presently it might not be fair to expect him to do so.

On the other hand, Martinez seems to have both the talent and the desire to be the leader of the Indians. As a catcher, Victor would seem to demand respect of the pitching staff and as the team's most polished hitter, it would be natural for him to set the tone in the lockerroom to the other hitters (hopefully preaching patience). I do think Martinez is probably the silent leader of this ballclub. I think Victor's personality appears that he's not so much an outspoken leader, as much as he leads by example.

The problem with Victor serving as the leader of this ball club is that he also currently the team's most tradable asset. As Biff discussed in one of his earlier posts, with the organizational glut of catching prospects coupled with Victor's inevitably move from behind the plate to first-base, if the Indians continue to tank, their apparent leader of the Tribe may be out of here by July.

Interestingly, Ryan Garko was recently asked on the radio who he thought was the emotional leader of the Tribe. His response - David Dellucci. Hmmm - the leader of the Tribe is someone who's been absent from the team for the majority of the season? Perhaps Wedge knew something about the makeup of the Indians when he essentially assured Dellucci a roster spot in Spring Training. If Dellucci truly is a team leader, maybe his value to the team is greater than most Indians' fans realize.

3. The Indians Offense Strikes Out Way Too Much

Finally, the Indians' offense, as constructed, essentially has to get lucky to succeed. As a team, the Tribe has marignal speed and and for the most part is forced to mainly play station-to-station baseball. We're not going to see the Indians manufacturing a load of runs. The problem with this philosphy, is that the Indians have to rely on clutch hitting to score runs. And the Indians strike out. A lot.

Take for example, Jhonny Peralta. In 101 ABs this season, he's struck out a whooping 32 times. Grady Sizemore has struck out 1 out of every 4 ABs. DeRosa and Choo - 1 out of every 5 times. Kelly Shoppach? 48 ABs and 20 Ks.

The point is - when a team, which doesn't have a lot of speed isn't even putting the ball into play 20% of the time, hits aren't getting strung together and runs aren't getting scored. Furthermore, it's hard to ever string together any kind of big inning or rally - it's inevitable someone's going to come along and strike out in a big moment. (And I know that the Indians' have had some huge innings this year, like against the Yankees).

With the Tribe's lack of plate discipline, the Tribe has a knack for letting opposing pitchers off the hook, prolonging their appearance in the game and avoiding getting to another team's bullpen. Our hitters make the other team's job easier. And my job as a fan much harder.

So - what we have is an organization with no leadership, a team with no plate discipline and a bullpen which can't get anyone out? How would I fix these problems? I think the roster moves (bringing up LaPorta and Valbuena) are a start - placing those underachievers on the roster on notice. I think it might be time to bring in a new coach - as I said above, perhaps someone with a little bit more fire in the likes of Tony Pena. I think it might be time to take the next relief pitcher who gives up a lead out back and shoot them. Same for the next player who strikes out with runners in scoring position. Other than that, I see but one solution. GO CAVS.
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Monday, April 27, 2009

Biff's Draft Reactions

You all know that my default position regarding the Browns and the new regime is one of complete skepticism. I'm not sure I really understand what they've been trying to do and I don't necessarily appreciate the attitude with which they've done it. That said, I approached this draft having disposed of most of my animosity toward the franchise and put to rest the majority of my personal grudges against its owner and head coach. I was ready to give the new regime the fresh start that they probably deserve. With that little preamble, allow me to give you my thoughts on the Browns 2009 draft.


1. Trading down from the #5 pick was a godsend. Truthfully, I don't even need to know anything about the players we acquired from the Jets. It was the right move. It would have been completely absurd for the Browns to pay #5 money to any of the guys that were on the board when they were picking. Not a single player in the top 10 of this year's draft is the type of sure thing pro-bowler that would warrant the type of money they're going to get. It's not worth butchering your cap situation to roll the dice on virtually the same calliber of player that you can get for a third of the money a handful of slots later. As you can tell, I absolutely loved the move back, even though I think based on traditional value charts, it should've cost the Jets a little bit more to move up twelve spots in round 1 (but maybe that's just because as a Browns fan, I'm used to paying high second rounders to move up one spot). Either way, it was a GREAT move.

2. I loved that the Browns kept moving back. It didn't matter that they were only getting 6th rounders in return; they were going to get the same quality of player for less money and pick up additional opportunities to take shots in the dark with late picks. No brainer.

3. With the 21st pick, the Browns select Alex Mack, C, California: Ok, I didn't see that one coming and I didn't necessarily love it. But, my reasoning is probably different than it is for a lot of other people out there. I don't have a problem with the Browns drafting a center in the first round. Truthfully, I think the importance of the center position is underestimated by most fans. Not only are you anchoring the point of attack, nowadays usually against a mammoth two gap tackle, but you're also making the line calls. I like the idea of having a massive, intelligent guy manning the middle of the Browns line. That said, here's what bothers me about Mack: He's not a great run blocker. If there's such a thing, it sounds like he's more of a finesse center. Now, when we're talking about our left tackle, the guy protecting our quarterback's blind side, I'll take agility and finesse at the expense of some run blocking power. At center though . . . I want a road grader. I'm not sure that Mack fits that bill. I love drafting offensive linemen in the first round but I would've rather seen them take Michael Oher. To me, getting a top flight right tackle would've given them a little bit more than a top flight center. I know Fraley is done but the same could be said of whichever miscellaneous journeyman we're going to have manning the right tackle position this year. I think the upgrade would've been more significant at RT, but, I realize that that's just a matter of opinion. Overall, I don't think any of us should have a real beef with the Mack pick.

4. With the 36th pick, the Browns select Brian Robiskie, WR, OSU: Inexcusable. Flat out inexcusable. I understand that with or without Braylon, we needed a receiver. That said, there were a lot of great players left on the board. Even if the Browns had decided they weren't going to take Maulagua (a decision with which I now agree with after reading scout after scout say he is an out of control alcoholic maniac), there were other players available there that offered more than Robiskie. This is especially true if the Browns knew they had another receiver on their board for the second round that they liked in Massaquoi. Why not take, say, Lesean McCoy (you realize our starting RB is finished, right?) or even a D-lineman or defensive back to bolster the defense? As for Robiskie himself, I have two thoughts: 1) People love to tout the fact that he was the most NFL ready receiver in the draft. Well, to me, that's code for the fact that he probably has the least room for growth of any receiver in the draft. He's going to remain exactly what he is right now: A smart receiver with good size and route running ability who is just too slow to get good separation. I don't see him filling a slot role because of his lack of speed and I'm not sure he will ever be effective on the outside because he can't get separation. 2) Say what you want about Robiskie's hands but I'll always remember him for dropping the biggest pass of his college career. I don't care what anybody else says: if he catches that TD pass in the Superdome, that game would've played out totally differently. This was just a really bad pick. I hated it.

5. With the 50th pick, the Browns select Mohammed Massaquoi: Massaquoi was a good college receiver and should make a solid #2/3 receiver in the pros. Plus, he has a fantastic reciever name that I sincerly enjoy saying out loud for no reason. This pick would've made a ton of sense had they not just taken a crappier version of the same guy 14 slots earlier. After taking Robiskie at 36, this pick made NO SENSE. With all of the holes on the roster, you're taking TWO possession receivers in the second round? That's maximizing the value of the picks? I'm sorry but I just don't get it. The Browns should've gone defense or running back with one of those two picks and I think down the line, this will prove to be a costly mistake. Second rounders are hard to obtain. You can't just keep burning them up by making redundant picks of "safe" players at a position that is far less important than others at which your team has gaping holes. Overall, a good player but a head-scratching pick given the circumstances.

6. With the 52nd pick, the Browns select David Veikune, DE, Hawaii: I'll be honest and say that I don't know the first thing about this guy. I know he was projected as about a 3rd rounder and it never makes me feel wonderful when the pundits are calling the pick a reach. I'll give the new regime the benefit of the doubt and say that maybe they're just smarter than we think and they know how to find guys to fit their system. Still, I just can't help but think that this is another case of a front office thinking they're smarter than everyone else. Then again, I've also lived through a regime that came to a consensus on using a second rounder on a guy that nobody had ever heard of who played on a winless college team called West Texas A&M. Excuse me for being skeptical on the whole idea of the small school diamond in the rough. Still, it's not fair to criticize a pick I know nothing about. We certainly needed a "hybrid" DE/LB (which essentially means you end up spending a high pick on a guy without knowing if he has any ability to play the position for which he's just been drafted) so I'll take a wait and see approach.

7. With the 104st pick, the Browns select Kaluke Maiave: The Browns add yet another Polynesian defender to take the sting out of the Maulaga miss! Seriously though, there is nothing wrong with this pick . . . other than the fact that between Maiave and Veikune, I'm not sure we found a single linebacker who is big and physical enough to play every down in the NFL. I have nothing against Maiave, but a 229 lb linebacker probably isn't the cure for what ails our run defense. Perhaps maybe we should've taken a linebacker with a bit better size instead of a crappy possession receiver at 36. Editor's note: My buddy DC started referring to this guy as "the third tenor," a nickname which I find to be very appropriate even though, truthfully, Clay Matthews Jr. is really the third USC tenor and this guy is . . . I don't know, the guy who served as Carreras's backup. Who knows, maybe he'll add some bulk to his frame and end up being a contributor. But hey, on the bright side for Maiave, he'll have virtually no competition at his position on the roster, so that's a positive!

8. I'll lump all of the sixth rounders together:

177 - Carey: Scouting report says he has tight hips. I have no idea what that means but if I had a scouting to english dictionary, it would probably say that "tight hips" translates to "nickel at best." I might've gone with Cedrick Peerman at this spot, the RB out of Virginia. Obviously it's a shot in the dark with anyone this late in the draft but Peerman graded out significantly higher than James Davis, who we ended up drafting later on.

191 - Coye Francies: The scouts like him and after all of the yawnworthy picks that came before him, I like the fact that he's a bit of a risk/reward pick . . . and by risk, I mean he was once brought up on weapons charges and kicked out of Oregon State. I'm glad we carried the "high character" theme all the way through the draft.

195 - James Davis: Well, we certainly needed a running back. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we needed one with all the explosiveness of a 30 year old Jamal Lewis. I'm doubtful Davis will be on the roster by this time next year. I really would've like to have seen this position addressed in round 2 with LeSean McCoy.

Overall Grade (because grades mean so much and are not in any way arbitrary): C+

If nothing else, the Browns were smart enough to trade out of the 5th spot and prevent the inevitable contract holdout/money hemmorhage that goes with it. In addition, between the trade with the Jets and the picks, the team probably added 4 starters. Unfortunately, the starters they added are probably the quality of players that you would expect to be starting for a 5-11 or 6-10 team. I guess you have to take baby steps when you're rebuilding and get your hands on as many solid guys as possible, but I'm still a little concerned that we came out of this draft without a single player that projects to be a major impact guy at any point in his career. They all seem to be solid but unspectacular . . . which is probably the way I'll remember this draft in general.
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Sunday, April 26, 2009

DRAFT DAY

What a day. Full of highs and lows. The nervous, excited anticipation was palpable. Today we learned exactly what we are getting with the MANKOK regime.

Rumors swirled for months that the Browns would trade Quinn and Edwards. Countless big name college stars were mentioned as possible selections with the 5th overall pick. Even another qb, Mark Sanchez, was speculated to be a Brown.

Ultimately, it was all a perfectly planned smokescreen. We got the Jets to trade us a starting DE, Safety, bankup qb, and a second round pick for the right to switch 12 spots in round one. Defensive problems mostly solved. Now we just need a pass rushing olb. Now picking at number 17, surely Clay Matthews jerseys will be back in style in Cleveland.

A couple more trades and a couple more 6th round picks later, and I'm as high as a kite. This is incredible. We saved so much money be backing from the 5th pick to the 21st pick. Not to mention the players and picks acquired. I'm in love with MANKOK. And then it happened.

Alex Mack. I will spare you the Secret World of Alex Mack reference (or will I). Pure devastation. Maybe I didn't watch closely enough, but I didn't think Fraley was that bad. Our biggest need is OLB, not center. Maybe I was wrong, because lots of folks have since told me Fraley is a bum. That's fine. I'll get on board with this pick. Sure it was a little high. But we did our best to get as close to the end of the first round as we could in order to take him closer to his projection. I can't fault the team for getting the guy it wanted (unless that team is the Raiders). Gotta like a center who is smart (academic heisman), and was one of only four lineman to run a 40 yard dash in under 5.0. He also has the size to contain Hampton and Ngata. Good pick. I guess.

After the Mack pick, I was hoping we'd trade some of our newly acquired picks to move back into the first round to take a linebacker. Didn't happen. I was hoping Nicks would fall to us at 36. Didn't happen. I was hoping we'd trade Braylon to the Giants. Didn't happen.

What did happen was three more reaches. Robiske, Massaquoi, and Veikune were taken higher than projected by the "experts." But they do fill needs and are smart, character guys (or so I am told by the "experts"). WR was possibly the weakest position on the team. Braylon can't catch. Stallworth has legal and health problems. Syndric Steptoe was our starting WR last year. If you recall, we traded up for Hubbard last NFL draft, and he wasn't good enough to make the field for this collection of stiffs last year. Robiske and Massaquoi were arguably the two best receivers available. If we wanted immediate improvement at the WR position, which we definitely needed, we had to take them.

Veikune I don't know much about so I won't pretend to. He played DE in college, but is a linebacker in the nfl. One of the reasons MANKOK liked him is probably that he has potential at both inside and outside linebacker. If he is a bust at either, we can always convert him.

Now I'm going to watch Mel Kiper's sexy hair. Bye.

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Garnett, Stephen A., Braylon, Etc.

A few quick thoughts:

1. I don't think it matters all that much but as a Cavs fan, I'm a little upset that Garnett is out for the playoffs. First of all, the Magic give me far more concern than Boston. While I'm 90% sure the Cavs would beat a healthy Boston team in a 7 game series with the home court, I am far less comfortable playing Orlando. With the Magic's size and 3-point shooting ability, they could very easily get hot and steal one at the Q. Meanwhile, the Cavs have struggled mightily in Orlando. What's more, if Boston still manages to get past the Magic, I think they'll be a slightly more dangerous team playing with an "us against the world" or "nothing to lose" mentality in a potential Eastern Conference finals than they would have been with Garnett out there hobbling around at 60%. Overall though, I'm confident it's not going to matter. The Cavs are going to win the east. That's right, I said it. This is the year and this is the team.

On a side note, what a gift this is for Celtics fans. In spite of what Bill Simmons wrote this morning, we all know that this will give Celtics fans the title defense excuse they are so desperately seeking. Ten years from now, instead of telling everyone that they couldn't defend their title because they were the 3rd best team in the league, they'll be pulling the whole, "yeah, and we were poised to do it again but then Garnett broke down so we never had the opportunity" routine. Leave it to Boston fans to come up with some great revisionist history. Make no mistake: The Celtics had NO chance of defending their title, even with a healthy Garnett. Both the Cavs and Lakers are younger and more talented, and Boston is terrible in the clutch away from home.

2. Well Stephen A. Smith is no longer with ESPN. That's right, the man who built his career on making up stories and being the loudest guy in the room is apparently a free agent. According to deadspin, the worldwide leader asked Smith to take a pay cut and he was not having it. Shrewd career move Steve. I'm sure, given the huge demand for journalists right now, you'll have no problem landing a better gig. Even if you don't though, you can always hang your hat on the lasting impact you made on the sports world with "Quite Frankly."

3. I sincerely hope that the Browns trade Braylon for a first rounder but wouldn't it be fitting that they'd end up spending an insane amount of money on first round picks shortly before the collective bargaining agreement is completely rewritten to include a rookie pay scale.

4. If I were Mark Shapiro, I'd be spending my days studying the minor league prospects of contending teams that need a catcher. Victor's value is going to be sky high this summer and the Indians need to seize the opportunity to move him.

5. I started thinking today about a scenario that would make the city of Cleveland spontaneously combust. Game 7, NBA finals, Cavs win a thriller, the fans are going berzerk as the players hoist the O'Brien trophy, and then, out of nowhere, Lebron grabs the trophy, the microphone, and a pen, and then Ferry walks out with a new 3-year contract that Lebron announces he is signing. I honestly think people would start having heart attacks. Now that would be some kind of something.

Ok, I obviously have nothing more to talk about. That's it for now.
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Sunday, April 12, 2009

Alvaro's Afterthoughts: Tribe 'Snaps' Losing Streak

The Indians finally decided to show up for the 2009 season, winning their first game today 8-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays. Here are my brief thoughts on the game.

1. I was in attendance at the game today and it was the smallest turnout I can remember seeing since the Indians moved into the new stadium. Announced attendance was at 14,216, which according to ESPN is 32.7% capacity and it seemed much emptier than that. The upper deck was almost completely empty - at one point being populated by more birds than fans. I know it was a) Easter b) Cold c) the Tribe has been playing poorly and d) the Cavs were playing the Celtics in the Q (1 more game to clinch home court throughout the playoffs!) but it was disheartening to the see the stadium so empty so early in the season. If the Indians fall out of contention sooner rather than later, we may start see old Stadium-sized crowds returning. Given the choice between the Cavs and the Indians right now, I think most fans would choose to spend their limited resources on a winner.

2. Anthony Reyes was solid, but not spectacular today. However, in comparison to the recent starting pitching of the Indians, he was an All-Star. Reyes had some trouble locating his pitches (only 53 of his 96 pitches were for strikes) and walked three batters, but other than his last inning of work, kept the damage to a minimum.

3. Like Reyes, Blue Jays' starter David Purcey had all sorts of trouble finding the plate. I don't know if it was the cold temperature, but Purcey bounced at least ten balls and sailed two over the head of Rod Barajas. Somehow, despite this wildness and walking 6 batters, Purcey also managed to strikeout ten Indians. Fellow CMCR writer, Biff, who attended the game as well, pointed out that the Indians showed some awful plate discipline today - and helped Purcey out of a couple situations that could have been a lot worse.

4. Before the game, Biff and I were talking about the impact that speed can have on a team. Grady Sizemore showed that in the first inning, creating a run himself ala Kenny Lofton. Sizemore walked to lead off the game, stole second, went to third on a wild pitch by Purcey and scored when Barajas threw the ball into the outfield. Though Sizemore would have been dead at third with a good throw, because of his speed, Barajas was forced to rush his throw and the Indians were gifted a run without the aid of a hit in the inning. Shin-Soo Choo also stole a base in the game.

5. Mark DeRosa gave the Indians a 3-0 lead when he launched his first home run of the season into the left-field bleachers. I was glad to see DeRosa hit one out as I was worried his power numbers might be affected negatively leaving the wind-aided confines of Wrigley Field. DeRosa still looks a little uncomfortable at the plate, after a very solid Spring Training. It's possible he's pressing a bit, trying to make an immediate impact with his new team.

6. Trevor Crowe provided the highlight of the season thus far. With runners on second and third and two outs, the Blue Jays chose to pitch around Ryan Garko issuing the "unintentional-intentional" walk. Trevor Crowe came to the plate with the bases loaded, looking for his first major league hit, and promptly struck out. Crowe then snapped his bat over his knee in frustration - a throwback to Bo Jackson. Then, in a twist of baseball fate, Crowe came back two innings later in the same situation, two outs with the bases loaded. This time, Crowe ripped a double to right-center scoring two runs. It was good to see Crowe not let his first at-bat get into his head and come through with a key hit in a key situation. The more Crowe produces, the greater the chance we will not be seeing Dellucci on the field again.

7. Pronk Patrol: Travis Hafner looked awful in his first three at-bats. Two swinging strike outs and a caught looking for the hat trick. However, Pronk worked a walk in his fourth plate appearance and in the ninth inning, with the Indians clinging to a one-run lead, hit a no-doubter into the right-field stands, providing two very large insurance runs. If you told most fans before the season started that Pronk would be batting .300 with 3 HRs a week in, they'd be thrilled. I'm going to give Pronk the benefit of the doubt in saying that he looks like someone working to regain their comfort level at the plate. He's had some bad swings so far this season, but he's also had some very, very good ones, reminiscent of Pronk swings from the past. The swing Hafner had when he hit the double in the first game of the series against the Blue Jays was the best swing I've seen Hafner had in two years. He's now hit home runs in three straight games. I'm not a believer that he can keep this up for the course of the season yet, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

8. Jhonny Peralta draws the ire of a lof of Indians' fans for his defense, sometimes deservedly so. However, his offensive production often goes overlooked. It might surprise you to learn that Peralta lead the American League in home-runs from the shortstop position last year with 23. Today he went 3 for 5, raising his batting average on the season to .333. He had multiple hit games every game in the series. Peralta seems to approach the plate with a Manny Ramirez mentality - he seems to have no short-term memory of any previous poor at-bats. I think that he can be a steadying force in the lineup.

9. Finally, Kerry Wood was lights out today, striking out the side in the 9th inning on 13 pitches. Wood was hitting the high nineties on the rader gun and just attacked the Blue Jays hitters. Hard to think that at this time last season we were being subjected to Joe Borowski's 80 MPH meatballs. Wood also seemed to energize the crowd, receiving one of the largest cheers all day when he took the mound. Hopefully he will have a save situation to pitch in sometime in the near future.

Tribe begins its series at Kansas City (3-3) tomorrow at 8:10. Carmona (0-1 10.80 ERA) will be looking for his first win against Zach Greinke (1-0 0.00 ERA)
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Saturday, April 11, 2009

Indians Thoughts

A few thoughts on our now 0-5 baseball team:

1. I didn't expect the Indians to win more than about 85 games this year but they're definitely not this bad. My guess is that they'll settle down eventually and become a .500 team. What kills me about the idea of another atrocious April though is that the Indians are going to be completely out of it by the all-star break, even in a very mediocre division. That makes for an awfully long season. It's one thing to play a meaningless second half. It's quite another to be playing virtual exhibition games in early June.

2. Shapiro and Dolan have to be absolutely terrified by the scenario that might be unfolding for the organization right now. Combine a cold, wet April with a terrible start for the team, now add in a bad recession and the possibility of the Cavs making a very deep playoff run that could last all the way into late June. I mean really, if all of those things come to fruition, the team could be looking at an absolute financial armageddon. What's more, I don't even know if they could really even dump salary if they wanted to because most of the expensive pieces that they might consider moving are virtually untradeable (Hafner, Dellucci, Kobayashi). I mean sure, you could shop a guy like Jake Westbrook if he can come back healthy but then you'd be seriously jeopardizing your chances to contend in 2010. The situation has the potential to turn into a mess. If the Indians can't stay within a hope and a prayer of the division lead in the first half, the only card that Shapiro will have to play as the summer rolls on is to bring up the kids from Columbus and sell the fans on the idea of growing with the team, with an eye toward next year. I don't see Indians fans opening their wallets for that idea but it might just be Shapiro's only option.

3. I've never been an anti-Eric Wedge guy. I've always thought that for the most part, he's done a decent job with what he's been given. That being said, I think if after 40 games, the Indians aren't showing any signs of life, it might be time to make a move. If nothing else, it would allow the Indians to bring in a new voice and a fresh perspective. I also think it's high time for Derek Shelton to be relieved of his duties as well. I know people will point to the second half of last season but I've always had my doubts about Shelton. If you look at the Indians young position players, how many of them have truly improved their approaches at the plate during Shelton's tenure? As a team, the Indians still don't work themselves deep into counts, they strike out at an alarming rate, and they swing at an abnormally high number of pitches outside of the strike zone. You can even look at a guy like Sizemore, who by all accounts is just a phenomenal hitter, and see that his weaknesses really aren't getting any stronger. I just don't think Shelton is helping the team to develop disciplined young hitters. It's time for him to go.

4. As for the pitching staff, I think the bullpen will end up being fine. There are just too many decent arms in that pen for them to continue to struggle like they have. I also think that both Lee and Carmona will straighten things out to some degree and end up winning between 12-15 games apiece. I think Lewis isn't going to be back withe the big league team anytime soon and I suspect that Pavano will end up being this year's Jason Johnson. It's certainly not a rosey perspective, but looking forward to next year (and after all, it's already mid-April....why wouldn't we be looking forward to next year), the Indians would have a chance to piece together a decent rotation out of Lee, Carmona, Westbrook and then some combination of Reyes, Laffey, and Huff.

5. Here's something that really bothers me about the Indians: As a team, they have absolutely no speed. So, even when they string together a couple of base hits, they end up playing station to station and making the diamond look like a clogged toilet. They must improve this aspect of the team going forward. I know that speed is probably less important in the American League, but it is still a huge disadvantage to be completely devoid of good baserunners. For example, look at a guy like Ryan Garko. Yes, at times, he's a perfectly decent hitter, but if he's going to be a sloth on the basebaths, he at least needs to be able to hit for power. If he can't (and I think it's safe to say that he can't), I'd rather have a guy like Michael Brantley (and yes, I'm aware that they play different positions) who, although he may bring even less power, will be a threat every time he gets on base. This team has been slow for far too long. It's time to get faster and more athletic.

6. It really upsets me when I see the Indians swinging at first pitch after first pitch against good pitching like they did today with Halliday. I understand that when you're facing an ace, sometimes you only get one pitch in an at-bat that you can really drive, but if you keep making outs early in counts, you have no chance of getting to the other team's bullpen. Good teams always seem to work deep into counts and force other team's pitchers to throw strikes. The Indians . . . not so much. Again, I think some of the blame for this has to fall on Shelton and Wedge.

7. I think that if the Tribe isn't in contention at the All-Star break, the should explore the idea of trading Victor Martinez. I know that's going to rub a lot of people the wrong way but I think it makes a ton of baseball sense. I believe that the Indians have an option on Martinez for next year, but then after 2010, he would be a free agent (and of course, the Indians probably wouldn't be able to afford to re-sign him). If Victor is healthy and reestablishes himself as a premier hitting catcher/1B during the first half, at age 30 with a lot of gas left in the tank and a contract that plenty of teams could absorb, Martinez could bring in a huge haul. If you look at this team, they're probably a couple of years away from contending again with or without Martinez. If they moved him, they would still have an above-average catcher in Kelly Shoppach, along with the jewel of their farm system, Carlos Santana. With all of the teams out there that would fall all over themselves to get Martinez, the Indians should use their organizational depth at Catcher to bring in more prospects. Given their payroll limitations,the team is probably going to struggle to contend more than once every few years. If they can move Martinez (and maybe even Cliff Lee) now, they can create a bumper crop of top-level prospects to give them the chance of growing into a serious contender a couple years down the road.

That's all for now. Here's hoping we can get off the schneid tomorrow.
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Updating the Power Rankings

After a couple of months, the revised power rankings look strikingly similar to the original. The only new name on the list is Anderson Varejao, who replaces Cliff Lee (currently getting shelled for a second straight game) and knocks Josh Cribbs and Shaun Rogers down a spot. The justification for the move is pretty obvious: The Cavs have been the talk of the town for months, Varejao is having his best season as a pro, and the fans and media are all in love with the way he plays the game.

As for Lee, it's not that all of the goodwill of a Cy Young season has been wiped away with two bad starts. But considering the way the Indians and Lee have stumbled out of the gate, the truth is just that Varejao is probably more beloved in this town right now than Lee. Rogers barely hangs on to the 10th spot after reconciling with the Browns after previously demanding his release.

Others just missing the list: Delonte West, Travis Hafner, Cliff Lee, Matt LaPorta

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Thursday, April 9, 2009

We're All Thinking It: We Just Don't Say It

Well the Indians got blitzed in Texas and appear to have some serious problems, but for all of our sakes, I'll skip the gruesome recap. I'll just say that it's not hard to believe that a team with just two above-average starting pitchers, two threatening hitters, and a cleanup hitter that can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag, might struggle to win games at the major league level. But I'll save the discussion of the overall roster for another day. Right now, it's the aforementioned cleanup-hitting DH that I'd really love to talk about.

I haven't really said a word about Travis Hafner since the last time his career was at all relevant to my rooting interests as an Indians fan. That was 2007 during the ALCS, and even then, his relevance had little to do with his performance and much more to do with the fact that he was in the starting lineup for a team on the verge of winning a title. Truthfully though, Travis Hafner hasn't been Travis Hafner since 2006. Now listen, by all accounts, Travis Hafner seems like a pretty good guy. His teammates seem to like him, he plays hard every day, and he's never said anything but positive things about the city of Cleveland. However, it has been those same endearing qualities that have shielded Hafner from what, for a less likeable player or one in a more intrusive media market, could have been a firestorm of criticism. Consider the facts:

1. Travis Hafner was not a highly regarded player in his youth. He was a 31st round draft pick out of Cowley Community College in Kansas in 1996 and never really distinguished himself as an elite prospect at the minor league level.

2. Hafner spent 5 years in the late 1990s and early 2000s in the Texas Rangers' farm system. During that period, the Rangers were absolutely loaded with steroid users. Although we can't know the full extent and the depths to which the steroid culture permeated the different levels of the Ranger organization, it is safe to say that during that period, the franchise was becoming the poster team for baseball's dark era. If you played in the Texas system in the late 90's, it's a pretty safe bet that you learned a thing or two about steroids.

3. Here are Hafner's numbers from age 25 to age 31 starting with plate appearances, then batting average, home runs, and finally, OPS:

25: 70, .242, 1, .716
26: 324, .254, 14, .812
27: 573, .311, 28, .993
28: 578, .305, 33, 1.003
29: 563, .308, 42, 1.097
30: 559, .266, 24, .837
31: 233, .197, 5, .628

I'm no statistician but I'd say that's a pretty a pretty steep curve on both sides of the crest. And keep in mind, we're talking about a six-year period here. In the life of an NFL running back, that's an eternity. In the career of a major league DH, six years is nothing, especially when they happen to span the end of player's youth and the beginning of his prime.

4. Baseball sluggers in general are not normally predisposed to such precipitous drops in ability. This isn't Ian Baker-Finch trying to find the fairway at the British or Rick Ankiel trying to throw a fastball for a strike. We're talking about a skill that once a player acquires, he generally continues to possess until his body begins to break down. Of course, there are exceptions to this general rule, but for the most part, All-Star sluggers don't just inexplicably fall off the map when they hit 30.

5. Pronk's decline can't be attributed to a specific injury. Yes, he broke a bone in his hand when he was beaned by C.J. Wilson on September 1, 2006, but that's not the type of injury that just ends a player's career. Plus, he played the entire 2007 season without any mention of that injury. In 2008, after a horrible start, he had his shoulder scoped, but mysteriously, the doctors never really ever found a problem with it. Am I the only one that finds that completely strange? James Andrews spent 45 minutes inside Hafner's shoulder and didn't find a damn thing wrong with it. We were told that the joint was "cleaned out" but were never offered any additional clarification as to what Andrews actually found that could have caused Hafner to lose all of his strength.

6. We've yet to hear of any mechanical issues with Hafner's swing. You'd think that after trying to work out of a "slump" for two years, if Hafner's problems had anything to do with his swing or approach at the plate, he and Derek Shelton would've figured it out by now.

7. Even though his shoulder joint is now apparently "clean," Hafner has lost virtually all of his bat speed. A player who was once perhaps the most feared in the American League can now have the bat absolutely blown out of his hands by a low 90's fastball on the inner-half of the plate. Moreover, even when he does connect, the words most apt to describe his power are "warning track."

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Hafner is now HALF THE SIZE that he used to be. This is easily the most alarming aspect of the entire ordeal and is also the inspiration behind my decision to write this post. I turned on the Rangers game the other day and almost fell out of my chair. Half is obviously an exaggeration, but for a guy who was once built like a lumberjack, Hafner now looks absolutely scrawny. This type of thing just doesn't happen to elite hitters in their early 30's. If anything, they continue to get bigger. I haven't seen what the Indians are listing Hafner at this year, but honestly, it doesn't make any difference. My eyes work. He's not nearly the same size that he was when he was hitting 30 and 40 bombs a year. Look at the two pictures above. One is from this year. The other is from Hafner's prime. Can you see the difference? If you can't, maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me.

And please, don't tell me that the loss of muscle mass is because of the surgery. He's a major leaguer. Every professional athlete is put through an intense rehab and weight training program after a procedure like the one Hafner underwent. I've yet to hear any reports of any of them suffering from irreversible shrinkage of the chest, arms, or head.

. . .

Now, forget for a minute that we're talking about Travis Hafner. Look at the last eight points but imagine that we're talking about a player for whom you never rooted or for whom you never felt any personal affinity. Play connect-the-dots for a minute. What conclusion would you draw?

So, what does this all mean? Well, I guess it means whatever you want it to mean. The thing is, you can't prove the negative: Hafner can never really prove that he wasn't on the juice. But, at the same time, the chances that any of us will ever be exposed to evidence implicating Hafner are remote at best. Baseball is primed to sweep the rest of the steroid era's dirty laundry under the rug. A few giant fish have been caught and disgraced, and based on the current HR numbers leaguewide, it appears that those who were not caught have been sufficiently deterred. In short, there remains little incentive to keep digging, especially around benign figures such as Pronk. We're just never going to know the answer.

Still, I think there is a point to all of this. We're all free to believe whatever we want to believe, but if you are like me, and are convinced, based on the overwhelming circumstantial evidence, that Hafner was juicing through at least the 2006 season, you have a right to be outraged. Hafner signed a four-year, $57 million extension during the 2007 all-star break. If he knew that the contract was premised on a level of performance that he could not, or perhaps did not intend to replicate, he defrauded the club by signing the deal. Now, the Indians are paying $13 million a year for a guy who has no place in a major-league lineup. If this were New York, we wouldn't care. For a team like the Indians and a city like Cleveland though, if my theory is correct, Hafner has screwed us all.

Finally, if Hafner was in fact roiding through his best years, Shapiro and Wedge had to know about it. That, above all else, is the most compelling defense Hafner's story has to offer. If Hafner was on the juice, a smart guy like Shapiro certainly knew about it; and if he did, it would seem horribly reckless for him to have given Hafner that extension. Of course, there is the possibility that 1) Shapiro suspected but didn't know for sure, and just figured whatever Hafner was doing, he would keep doing it, or 2) he knew exactly what Hafner was doing but thought, based on Hafner's popularity and ability to draw fans, he could squeeze enough out of him over the next four years to make him profitable.

In Conclusion, I don't really know what happened. My theory is based on nothing more than instinct and conjecture. All I know is that a lot of Cleveland fans are still holding out hope that Hafner will return to a level that, for whatever reason, drugs, injuries, or otherwise, I don't think he is ever capable of reaching again. I also know that the Indians are a mid-market team that owes a boatload of money to a guy who can't have more than a couple of months left as a "cleanup hitter," and probably doesn't have more than a couple more years left on a major league roster. And finally, I know that as an Indians fan, I really hope that Matt LaPorta is the real thing. Having watched multiple elite power hitters leave town over the years, and then another decide to stay, only to inexplicably fall off the face of the earth at the very outset of his prime, I need LaPorta to be as good as advertised . . . And unfortunately, unless another power hitter miraculously falls from the sky, the Indians are going to need him if they hope to contend in the years ahead.
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